Anti-incumbency factor not pronounced

By V. Jayanth

CHENNAI, APRIL 28. When a Government lasts its full term of five years and then goes in for a fresh mandate, there is invariably an anti-incumbency factor which weighs against the ruling party. With less than a fortnight to go for the Assembly polls, it is difficult to figure out if the DMK regime in Tamil Nadu suffers this disadvantage.

It may be easy to say the anti-incumbency factor is at play. But, in a discerning study, it becomes clear that there is no major apathy to the Karunanidhi Government.

The DMK president, Mr. M. Karunanidhi, and his screening committee in the party have consciously fielded 74 new faces. This has probably mitigated the anti-incumbency factor to a large extent.

Even after that exercise, there are a handful of Ministers and some MLAs who do not seem to enjoy much popularity in their home turf. People do not have a good word to say about them. And yet, many of them may romp home victorious as they face weak candidates and have become masters on the electoral battle front.

What causes this anti-incumbency factor? Non- performance, unkept promises, non-implementation of welfare programmes and poor upkeep of infrastructure, to name a few. When a Government is unpopular and when this feeling reaches a limit, it converts into a wave against the regime and results in an overwhelming victory for the opposition.

Viewed from this angle, a survey of about 10 districts from Nagapattinam to Tirunelveli, shows that there is no major wave sweeping the region and no major complaints against the Government, per se. Of course, there is a litany of complaints against individual ministers and legislators, but this has not translated into an anti-DMK wave.

Having said that, it must also be mentioned that in the southern districts, where MGR and his `two leaves' symbol are still a rage, there is a yearning among a section of voters that the AIADMK rule must be restored at any cost. As the party has been out of power for five years, they would like to reinstall ``their Government'' and celebrate its rule.

In the east and central parts of the State, there is a feeling that the 1996-2001 DMK regime was much better than

the party's past Governments. There have been more visible developments and a ``fairly efficient administration''. But caste factors come to play even in this assessment. Not all sections share this view.

Even in the south, taking Tirunelveli and Theni for instance, the farmers there seem to be happy with the progress made in many irrigation projects. Several new schemes and improvement works have been undertaken in the water sources and old reservoirs or dams to enhance cultivation and help farmers. Many schemes have been handed over to user associations now and are functioning well.

Development of the highways and rural roads appears a major achievement of the DMK regime and the Minister in-charge, Mr. T. Kirutinan, hails from the south. The introduction of mini buses to remote areas and the laying of concrete roads in villages have also had a major impact on the masses.

But in and around the urban centres, discontent is evident in distribution of loans for cooking gas connections to women. The allegation is that this benefit has been largely confined to the families of ruling partymen and those identified by them.

The intensive campaign undertaken by the AIADMK chief, Ms. Jayalalitha, in the south is having its own impact and she was perceived to be much more effective and vocal after the rejection of her nominations.

There is, however, a distinction to be made. Even if there is no anti-establishment wave, two other factors need to be reckoned with-voter apathy and a desire for change. It is always possible that a mood for change could prove the undoing of a Government. That is something that needs to be gauged.

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Section  : Southern States
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