The changing colours of cynicism

With Assembly elections fast approaching, the BJP in Uttar Pradesh is in a hurry to change the public perception about it, writes J. P. Shukla.

AS THE countdown begins for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, the BJP's anxiety to retain power in the country's most populous State has naturally increased. Top party leaders, including the Prime Minister, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee, have been stressing that all efforts should be made to hold on to the State. If the BJP loses power in the State, say analysts, its Government at the Centre could be threatened. Uttar Pradesh's importance for the BJP can hardly be overemphasised.

If the results of the last few Assembly elections are an indication, the BJP cannot hope to gain a majority on its own. However, it did emerge as the single largest party even after the Babri Masjid was demolished. The debate now centres round whether the BJP will continue to hold on to the first position in the State.

For the record, the BJP leaders have been claiming they will form the next Government too, though they are concerned about the decline in popularity over the last four years. Survey agencies and various media reports indicate the BJP's strength could be halved. The predictions have been hotly contested by the saffron leaders.

Without explaining the logic of his optimism, the Chief Minister, Mr. Rajnath Singh, repeatedly claims his party will head the next Government in the State.

To convert the claims into reality the party has taken a number of steps, especially after Mr. Rajnath Singh replaced Mr. Ram Prakash Gupta as Chief Minister last year. Mr. Singh and the State party chief, Mr. Kalraj Mishra, who came to head the party organisation around the same time, have been working to change public perception. While Mr. Mishra has been trying to rejuvenate the party apparatus by involving BJP cadres in various mass activities, Mr. Singh has tried to create an impression that he wants to do something for every section of society.

In fact, the decline of the BJP had started from the day Mr. Kalyan Singh encouraged splits in the Opposition after the Bahujan Samaj Party leader, Ms. Mayawati, withdrew support to his government. Mr. Kalyan Singh offered ministerial posts to every MLA who defected to the BJP's side. This deprived the BJP of its claim to being the party with a difference. It did not help that several of its new-found supporters had long police records.

The internecine quarrels which finally led to Mr. Kalyan Singh's exit from the party further dented its image - as indicated by the Lok Sabha election results in 1999. Mr. Kalyan Singh blamed the Prime Minister, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee, himself for the activities of his detractors. He did everything he could to annihilate the BJP during his last days as Chief Minister.

After Mr. Kalyan Singh's expulsion from the party, the installation of Mr. Ram Prakash Gupta as Chief Minister did not help. The party then asked him to make way for Mr. Rajnath Singh.

Mr. Rajnath Singh has been trying to assert himself but is severely constrained by the legacy of his predecessors. He was forced, given the numbers in the Assembly, to continue with the same old team of Ministers. The BJP organisation was also impeded by similar constraints.

But with the Assembly elections fast approaching, the BJP is in a hurry to change the public perception about it. It has started work on a number of fronts simultaneously. At the political level, the State party chief organised yatras and panchayats in various parts of the State. The Chief Minister himself has been organising panchayats of various groups mainly to announce reliefs for them. He held panchayats of farmers, traders, teachers and even groups from the minority community. At most of these meetings, criticised as ``stage managed events'' by Opposition parties, praise was showered on the Chief Minister and this has been widely publicised.

Mr. Rajnath Singh has even taken a calculated step to woo the Backward Castes and Scheduled Castes by constituting the Committee for Social Justice. The panel is expected to re-examine the benefits for different castes from the reservation policy.

Caste loyalties in the State had remained somewhat static for the past several years. The two main Opposition parties - the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party - had claimed the support of the Backwards and the Dalits en masse. However, all the Backward Castes had not derived the same benefits from the system, though their political representatives had claimed that they were fighting for the interest of the entire class. This is what the BJP is trying to exploit.

It is now almost certain that the system of reservation within reservation will be introduced in the State well before the elections. This has the Samajwadi Party and the BSP worried. But they can do little as opposing quotas with quotas would present them as enemies of the deprived among the Dalits and the Backward Castes. So the two main Opposition parties have readjusted their responses. Their first reaction was to attack the formula on the ground that it would divide society and cause caste wars. Now they are advising the beneficiaries of the reservation system to be ready to sacrifice their interest for the deprived sections. Mr. Rajnath Singh's dismissal of the Minister for Energy and leader of the Loktantrik Congress Party, Mr. Naresh Agarwal, was also aimed at revamping the BJP's and his own image. Mr. Agarwal had been enjoying tremendous power in the Government for the past four years. He was the leader of the largest group among the BJP allies in the State. But for the BJP and the Chief Minister he had become a burden with his constant cajoling and threatening for a greater share of power. Mr. Agarwal seems to have failed to realise that for the BJP now image is everything. Further, most of the LCP MLAs have stayed with the BJP.

When the elections will be held is still a matter of speculation. Mr. Rajnath Singh has been saying that the term of the Assembly expires only next year. His opponents are not ready to accept his utterances at face value. Can the BJP catch the Opposition off guard with the dates?

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Section  : Opinion
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