Mount Usu erupts again

TOKYO, APRIL 2. Japan's trembling Mount Usu erupted for the fifth time, spewing clouds of black ash and steam far into the air yesterday.

The frequency of tremors shaking the volcano dropped to 28 in the first 12 hours of the day compared to 159 in the whole of Saturday, officials said, but the threat of mudslides and a bigger explosion persisted.

- PTI

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Volcano brings gains for Obuchi

By F. J. Khergamvala

TOKYO, APRIL 2. The disaster prevention mechanism set up by Japan before the eruption of the Mount Usu volcano is a big plus for the Prime Minister, Mr. Keizo Obuchi, who has had a week good enough to bounce back from his lowest ratings ever.

As the activity on Mt Usu continues, so do evacuation efforts. As of Sunday, more than 15,000 people had been moved to safety. There has not been a single person wounded from the natural disaster. This is a contrast from the sorry handling and the lack of transparency surrounding the 1999 nuclear mishap. Moreover, economic figures look good and Mr. Obuchi has just warded off the last of blackmail attempts by a coalition ally.

A week is indeed a long time in politics. On March 29, the day the volcano spewed out its venom, the nation's largest, and perhaps the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's favourite news daily, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported that the Obuchi-led coalition's popularity had reached an over 60 per cent disapproval rate. About 85 per cent said they did not approve of the coalition's efforts and cited the formation of the coalition itself as an important factor in their opinion. Mr. Obuchi heads a coalition that consists of the LDP, the conservation right under the Liberal Party and the left-of-centre New Komeito.

Mr. Obuchi is currently considering the best time to hold the general election. Speculation has it that he would try and extract maximum mileage from the G-8 Summit in Okinawa in the last week of July and then go for the elections. Even if such high profile international events give the host leader an opportunity to highlight their international standing, Japan's voter has increasingly moved towards weighing domestic gains and losses. On the home front, the latest news for Mr. Obuchi shows him back on the upswing.

The news, as of Sunday morning is that the coalition as it is composed today, should fall apart on Monday. In January 1999, the Liberal Party, under Mr. Ichiro Ozawa, had joined the LDP to forge a conservative alliance. Later, he made demands on Mr. Obuchi that the latter was forced to succumb to, in order to retain advantage in the upper House. Mr. Obuchi then widened his options by bringing in the New Komeito into the coalition.

Now, he has decided that the cost of allowing one party in the tripartite alliance to split is far less than conceding to demands that may break the entire coalition and prompt even the New Komeito to leave. Some top members of the Liberal Party are likely to break off from Mr. Ozawa, form a new party and stay with Mr. Obuchi.

The Prime Minister still retains legislative advantage but this does not necessarily translate into public poll ratings because the alliance with the New Komeito remains unpopular.

Mr. Obuchi's political fortunes should not be adversely affected by the rise of Japan's jobless rate to 4 point 9 per cent in February.

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