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Tuesday, April 11, 2000

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Kim's sunshine policy pays off

By F.J. Khergamvala

TOKYO, APRIL. 10. The North Korean leader, Mr. Kim Jong II and the South's President, Mr. Kim Dae Jung are to meet in mid-June for a first-ever Korean summit meeting that suggests that the two Governments wish to impart a momentum to the ongoing private- level contacts between the two parts of the divided nation.

North Korea's Central News Agency announced on Monday that Pyongyang had agreed to a request from the South to hold the summit in Pyongyang. The South Korean Unification Minister, Mr. Park Jae-kyu, told a news conference in Seoul today that the summit schedule was arranged after the two Koreas had met in Beijing and Shanghai. Later this month, both the Koreas will meet to discuss details.

Japan joined the U.S. and Russia in welcoming the announcement. The Foreign Minister, Mr. Yohei Kono said if the summit was actually held, it would be ``epoch making.'' The planning of a North-South meeting has been in the news all of last week. To that extent the meeting is not a surprise, but it is historic. The schedule is a resumption of the summitry planned six years ago, in 1994 when Mr. Kim Jong II's father, Kim II Sung was to meet Mr. Kim Young Sam of the South, but the event could not come off because of the sudden death of Kim II Sung.

Any chance of the elder Kim's son inheriting a then planned summit was scuttled by the then South Korean leader, Mr. Kim Young Sam, under pressure from conservatives. This former South Korean President persecuted mourners of Kim II Sung and that did not leave any avenue open for the North. The thawing that led to the upcoming summit was due in part to Mr. Kim Dae Jung and also to the severe recessionary state of the South Korean economy, which became Seoul's primary concern.

The timing of the summit leads one to at least two tentative conclusions. That Mr. Kim Jong II has now consolidated his power sufficiently to take bold initiatives. Alternately, he has agreed to the summit because behind the scenes the U.S. had set certain conditions for aid and normalising ties. The second conclusion perhaps negates this arm-twisting scenario. The timing is clearly to the advantage of Mr. Kim Dae Jung of the South. Later this week, South Korea holds legislative elections. It is clearly to the advantage of Mr. Kim Dae Jung to show that his ``sunshine policy'' is paying off. The sunshine policy emphasises vigilance coupled with wide engagement with North Korea. The fact that Mr. Kim Jong II has agreed to cooperate with Mr. Kim Dae Jung in showing that the ``sunshine'' policy works, is a strong suggestion that Pyongyang was not under duress while agreeing to hold the summit. It now remains to be seen how the South Korean electorate reacts when it votes.

At the very least, unless the meeting breaks up in confrontational acrimony, the summit should have a positive spin- off for the North. Pyongyang has, quite rapidly by its standards, been developing its contacts with the outside world, notably the West and pro-Seoul governments. The latest is that Japan and South Korea are supportive of Pyongyang's efforts to join the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum (APC). It should not be surprising if the North is admitted with guest status, to begin with, as a symbolic gesture drawing it out of a state of isolation.

The North has begun building or reinforcing bridges with Australia, Italy, Indonesia and started normalisation talks with Japan. Additionally, it has moved quite far in scheduling a high- level visit to Washington DC, in a move that should result in the lifting of some sanctions and an opening of liaison offices as decided in the 1994 agreed framework between the two countries. Some of the North's efforts have been at the quiet urging of Beijing, which too has finally begun exchanging high- level visits with Pyongyang.

There is bound to be strong opposition to the new development in both the Koreas. The anti-Kim Dae Jung opposition in Seoul is using this as a platform to sell the argument that the President has ``sold out.''

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