Friday poll may show the way for reforms

By Kesava Menon

MANAMA (BAHRAIN), MAY. 1. The progression of the intimidation campaign being carried out by Iranian conservatives against pro- reformists depends on the results of the second round of the Parliamentary election to be held on Friday. If their candidates do prosper in the second round, the conservatives will have gained sufficient clout in Parliament to stymie the reform programme of the President, Mr. Mohammad Khatami.

Voters in 66 constituencies, where no candidate got even 25 per cent of the vote in the first round held on February 18, will go again to the polling station on Friday. Current indications are that the campaign of intimidation by the conservatives has not reversed the strong pro-reform trend of the first round. In fact, the trend could even get stronger since the massive majority of pro-reform voters are likely to rally behind the smaller number of their candidates contesting the second round. That will, of course, only happen if the elections are as fair and above board as the first round.

With the entire liberal press shut down, a vital instrument to measure the legitimacy of the second round polling would be missing. The conservatives control the Council of Guardians, the body which supervises the poll and also enjoy a monopoly over the media. Neither have they shown any qualms about using these instruments to further their interests. For instance, the Council has said contrary to all indications from the field that the voting for 30 seats in Teheran in the first round was suspect. If they have the audacity to make such claims about the vote which was watched closely by domestic and international observers, then they can claim anything in respect of the rest of the country.

By rigging the vote or counting and ancillary measures, the conservatives could hope to grab most of the 66 (or more if some of the Teheran seats are to be opened for a second round) seats remaining. Along with the 30-odd seats they won in the first round, the conservatives could hope to have over a 100 seats in the 290-member Parliament. This will certainly not be enough for them to be able to implement their own agenda but it may be enough for them to stymie Mr. Khatami's reform programme. An obstructionist outgoing Parliament did its best to ensure that Mr. Khatami could not do much to implement the economic and administrative aspects of his reform programme.

So far, Mr. Khatami's reforms have been almost entirely about the widening of the sphere of political and civil rights. But with an official unemployment rate of 16 per cent (unofficial estimates are almost double) and widespread despair at the lack of growth and high degrees of corruption, the public could soon become impatient with the slow rate of economic and administrative reform. Iranian conservatives control large swathes of the public sector since nominally State-owned industries have been hived off to the boniyads (foundations) which they manage. If they also have a strong presence in Parliament they could block government legislation and policies aimed at economic growth.

A strong presence in Parliament, though well short of a majority, could be invaluable to the conservatives. Pro-reform parliamentarians are a not a very cohesive group since they do not subscribe to the same set of economic and political policies. The conservatives could work on these fissures within the reform camp to unsettle the Government's agenda. If they succeed in their aims it could be Mr. Khatami, rather than the conservatives, who become the objects of public disenchantment. If the conservatives are able to ``manage'' the second round vote in their favour they might tone down the intimidation levels of their current campaign. If they are not able to then their isolation would be more complete and more graphic.

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Section  : International
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