Battle for Jaffna far from over

By Nirupama Subramanian

COLOMBO, MAY 30. After over a month of intense fighting for the Jaffna peninsula, there is a comparative lull with reports trickling in of only sporadic clashes, but the battle is by no means over yet.

Analysts here are interpreting Monday's offensive by the security forces at Chavakachcheri and Sarisalai in Thenmarachchi division as an indication that there was still some fight left in the troops, and that the capture of Jaffna by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam may not be the imminent inevitability that it seemed two weeks ago.

``It is the first time in nearly seven weeks of fighting that we have seen an offensive operation. It indicates that troops are showing a will to fight, their mood appears to have changed with the arrival of the new weapons,'' said Mr. Iqbal Athas, a writer for Janes' Defence Weekly.

However, no eventuality is ruled out. ``Undoubtedly, the LTTE will spring a surprise, as they have already done three times (by opening three separate and unexpected fronts) during the present battle,'' he said.

Military analysts said that unless there was a sudden ceasefire, the battle would depend on two factors: manpower on the LTTE's side, and sustainability of logistics on the side of the army. The battle would be decided when either of these gives.

For instance, the fate of Elephant Pass was decided the day the LTTE managed to cut off water supply to the camp. It is now learnt that ammunition in the ill-fated garrison was rationed because of low stocks.

In the present battle, the Army's two lifelines, Palaly air base and Kankesanthurai harbour, have already come under LTTE attack, though the Government has claimed that its supply lines through these two channels are fully active.

Fully aware that the battle could, in the final analysis, turn into a numbers game, the LTTE is believed to have begun a massive recruitment campaign to boost its manpower.

Quoting civilians arriving from LTTE-held areas in the Vanni mainland, a Government release said ``everyone under 45 years of age'' had been asked to undergo military training, so that they could be deployed in the peninsula. ``Those over 45 years of age have been deployed to man LTTE defences in the Vanni,'' it stated.

It added that according to people who had ``used jungle paths to escape'' to government-held areas, ``civilians including school children have been instructed by the LTTE leadership to give up all activities including education forthwith until Eelam is achieved''.

In the past, neither the security forces nor the LTTE demonstrated a capacity for sustained, long-term combat. It is no different this time, particularly after the heavy losses each side has suffered in manpower and material.

The LTTE's declaration of a temporary ceasefire last Saturday made it seem as if it would launch a big operation the next day. But the silence since then may be an indication that the LTTE fighting curve has straightened off, at least for now.

Except for Monday's offensive that yielded no terrritorial gains, the security forces too have not carried out any ambitious operations.

As both sides use the relative lull to take stock and devise fresh strategies, the only safe prediction being ventured is that the battle for Jaffna could be more long drawn out that was originally believed.

According to a government statement, seven soldiers were killed and 32 wounded in Monday's operation while troops recovered the bodies of 14 rebels. This was the first offensive operation by the Army since April.

Foreign diplomats briefed

In the capital, the Foreign Minister, Mr. Lakshman Kadirgamar, the Deputy Foreign Minister, Mr. Lakshman Kiriella, and the Minister for Rehabilitation and Reconstruction in the North, Dr. Sarath Amunugama, held a special briefing for heads of diplomatic missions, especially those from the donor community, UN agencies and the International Committee for the Red Cross today about the civilian population in the Jaffna peninsula.

A Foreign Affairs Ministry statement said they were briefed on the ``steps taken by the Government towards the continued welfare of the civilian population of Jaffna peninsula''.

The U.S. Under-Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Mr. Thomas Pickering, on Monday expressed concern at the ``humanitarian catastrophe'' in the making in the peninsula even as he reiterated the U.S. commitment to a united Sri Lanka.

The Commissioner-General of Essential Services, Major- General Sarath Munasinghe, said Jaffna had food stocks to last three months and more was on the way. According to him, government welfare centres in the peninsula had registered 8,352 people dislocated from their homes, but the estimate was not conclusive. Aid workers had put the figure at 1.5 lakh, most of whom had found shelter with friends and relations, and in public buildings. The gathering of diplomats was told that there was no shortage of medical supplies in the peninsula, and that public services such as transport and electricity continued with only minor disruptions.

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