Japan, N. Korea seek to normalise ties

By F. J. Khergamvala

TOKYO, AUG. 20. A North Korean delegation arrives in Tokyo to resume normalisation talks with Japan. This will be the 11th round of such talks, but the first since the North-South summitry set out to stabilise their own relationship.

Pyongyang now has a better appreciation of the enormous costs involved in creating the infrastructure to attract foreign investment to develop its economy. Consequently, Japan, as the only country that has the money to provide the two Koreas, has a much better idea of how much muscle it can politically deploy to exact its terms on the peninsula. The North-South railway, whose restoration will cost at least $ 50 millions, is an example.

Like previous rounds, no major breakthrough is expected but Japan will be quite satisfied if it ends with a scheduling of the next round. The Yoshiro Mori Government's immediate purpose is to keep the ball in play, while resisting Pyongyang's demands. It is even attempting to have a joint statement after this round.

Over the past week, Japan and North Korea were jockeying for advantage by reiterating old demands that are on the table. Japan wants to know more about what it says are at least 10 Japanese ``abducted'' by North Korean agents in the 1970's and 1980's. North Korea describes these demands as unreasonable. Japan also wants greater transparency on the North's missile programme. This is an issue where the North prefers to bargain only with the U.S., and with political uncertainty in Washington, the Kim Jong Il regime is in no hurry to be transparent.

The North Korean leader, Mr Kim Jong Il, has been firm in demanding reparations from Japan for the 36-year-old colonial regime. As the talks in Japan draw close, Pyongyang has been even more vocal on this score. ``I will never establish friendly ties with Japan at the sacrifice of our pride,'' he said.

The Mori Government does not want to address this issue at this stage. Every analyst expects that reparations will be paid in some form. The North will have to decide between two approaches. The South Koreans got direct reparations when they normalised ties with Japan over 30 years ago. Alternatively, the Chinese format could be employed by Pyongyang. This entails forsaking ``reparations'' but demanding extremely heavy amounts of soft yen loans as a form of compensation in perpetuity. In any case, until Japan has a fuller idea of how its own industry can benefit from tied aid, it considers talk about reparations as premature.

Nonetheless, not willing to appear hostile as well as to create a receptive public opinion at home, in April the Japanese lifted all sanctions imposed in August 1998 after the Taepodong missile test. Less than a fortnight ago, a Japanese Government mission returned from the North to certify that wide- ranging inspection had shown that 80,000 tonnes of rice shipped to the North so far had been distributed to all sections of the people, not just the military. Quite soon, Japan hopes to allow the return of some Japanese spouses of Koreans in Pyongyang.

Last month, in a breakthrough in Bangkok, the Japanese Foreign Minister, Mr Yohei Kono, met his counterpart, Mr Paek Nam-sun. The two are trying to arrange a meeting for Mr Mori with a high- level North Korean. Japan is also looking favourably on the North's suggestion to grant legitimate citizenship to North Koreans in Japan.

Japan, which has been kept out of security-related developments on the peninsula, such as the ``four-way'' talks, now feels comfortable that with North Korea talking to everybody, Japanese money power can be a useful tool to employ to influence the future of the peninsula. It, therefore, caved in to pressure from the entire region in accepting Pyongyang's admission to the Asean Regional Forum.

In fact, resisting Pyongyang's diplomatic offensive would have isolated Japan. Japan has steadfastly refused to accept North Korea's admission to the Asian Development Bank, even as an observer.

Pyongyang applied in 1997 to join the ADB, but the U.S. and Japan have denied it entry. Not only is Japan the predominant player at the ADB, but keeping Pyongyang away from tapping the resources of the ADB also means forcing North Korea's dependence on bilateral sources of assistance, which Japan is best equipped to provide.

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Section  : International
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