For a mandate with a message?

A LEGISLATIVE POLL is rarely a defining event under any system of executive presidency. However, Ms. Chandrika Kumaratunga, quite an innovative President of Sri Lanka, whose Parliament has now been dissolved in the normal course for the purpose of a fresh general election, seems to be looking for a mandate with a message. She had already hinted, ahead of the announcement of dissolution on August 18, that expert legal advice had been obtained by her Government on the highly controversial option of transforming the prospective new Parliament into a `constitutent assembly' for the passage of an already-crafted basic statute. However, it was not without significance that she had also, by and large, kept the operative legal counsel to herself, except to the extent of her reported comment that a simple majority would suffice for the approval of a new constitution by a (hypothetical) parliament-turned-constituent- assembly. The inevitable impression, therefore, is that Ms. Kumaratunga appears intent on sending a strong political signal to the electorate in this regard without really going the whole hog at this moment at least. In her transparent calculus, the constitutional reform bill, which her administration was forced to shield from a feared fatal vote in the now-disbanded Parliament, can perhaps be given a new lease of life on the floor of a `constituent assembly'. But, quite apart from her seemingly confident assumption that her People's Alliance will comfortably win the general election, scheduled for October 10, she knows that the legality and, more importantly, the political legitimacy of a short route to constitutional reform should be fool-proof. Now, this critical aspect is still highly contentious, whatever be the Himalayan hurdles which she, in her own reckoning, might have so far faced on this path.

By definition, any constitutional reform process in the contemporary Sri Lankan context is primarily a device to address, as satisfactorily as possible, an intractable political-ethnic crisis. Given the tussle between the majoritarian Sinhala- supremacist tendencies and the reactionary passions with a devastating potency from a singular minority outfit, any new constitutional architecture must be acceptable to all sides. While the President is convinced that she has been able to evolve the necessary critical mass (in a positive sense of the term) for precisely such reforms, the opposition United National Party, mainly of Sinhala orientation, is still keeping itself and the Government guessing on this count. It is in this context that Ms. Kumaratunga will need to measure her steps as she begins to figure out how far the planned parliamentary poll could be converted into a referendum on the constitutional package on view. For obvious reasons of presidential security and the weighted importance of a parliamentary poll, she cannot also strain her political resolve beyond a point, given her assessment too that she had already received a mandate for a political solution of the fundamental question in several previous elections.

Disagreeing with those seen to be pressing for a decisive military solution to the phenomenal menace from the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, Ms. Kumaratunga has reportedly argued that a (presumptive) victory in the battlefield would still necessitate a political formula for addressing the primary issue concerning the rights of the Tamil population. Otherwise, in her view, ``another (Mr.) Prabhakaran'' could well emerge in such a scenario. A seeming platitude of this order is not without its political meaning, and it remains to be seen how the UNP leader, Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe, and his political soul-mates will respond to this aspect of the President's parliamentary calculations. The economic situation and the cost of living, in particular, can of course be a relatively obvious agenda for the Opposition, despite the latest emergence of a radical Sinhala outfit in the name and style of Sihala Urumaya. But the overall mood of the campaign may depend considerably on the tactics of the new Prime Minister, Mr. Ratnasiri Wickramanayke, too.

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