Estrada fights for political survival

By Amit Baruah

SINGAPORE, OCT. 21. The Philippine President, Mr. Joseph Estrada, is fighting to stay in office after being accused of accepting millions of dollars from an illegal gambling lottery by Mr. Luis ``Chavit'' Singson, a provincial Governor and close associate.

Earlier in the week, Opposition legislators brought an impeachment motion against the President in the Lower House of Representatives as angry protesters from the left and the right took to the streets demanding his resignation. No stranger to controversy, Mr. Estrada, however, has never faced such serious charges in the 27 months he has been President of the country. Several charges of ``helping'' his friends have been made earlier, but none so grave as those levelled by Mr. Singson.

The dramatic resignation of the Vice-President, Ms. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, the rising clamour of voices from the Church and the public standing of the former President, Ms. Corazon Aquino, are all factors that Mr. Estrada has to contend with. Ms. Arroyo, a member of Mr. Estrada's Cabinet, had been silent about Mr. Estrada, but the latest allegations of accepting over $8 million from ``jueteng'' (an illegal lottery) proceeds were too much for her to stomach. Daughter of a former President, political analysts in Manila believe that she is positioning herself to take over the President's job in case he is forced to resign or doesn't finish the reminder of his term.

The President himself has said that he is ready to face an impeachment motion ``anytime, anywhere'' and said he will not resign his office. Mr. Estrada also claims that he has not accepted a single cent from illegal gambling proceeds. While the Archbishop of Manila, Cardinal Jamie Sin, the first to seek the ouster of the President, said Mr. Estrada had lost the moral authority to govern, Ms. Corazon Aquino, who led the Philippines to democracy in 1986, said Mr. Estrada should take a ``leave of absence'' while the charges are investigated.

``The fear is that the righteous anger of discerning Filipinos, the outright disgust of the moral authorities of our nation at such corruption so close to the highest office of the land, will spark a ceaseless round of protests that will write off the Philippine economy. And yet that anger cannot be discouraged because this country cannot live with the charges that have been made. They must be answered,'' Ms. Aquino said in a speech in Manila. ``And, finally there is the process which it is our hope to avoid (the remarks were made before October 18 when the impeachment move was initiated)....this is impeachment. From this process we expect the worst. It will be long drawn-out; it will put the truth at the mercy of numbers; and it will leave justice in the hands of those whose single overriding concern is their re-election,'' she said. ``The process may yet surprise us by achieving a fair and just result. But we think it will meet our worst expectations....'' Ms. Aquino maintained.

With Mr. Estrada's party having a brutal majority in the Lower House, it seems difficult for the impeachment motion to reach the Senate without a major chunk of the President's supporters voting along with Opposition legislators. The fears expressed by Ms. Aquino about the impeachment process are grounded in the reality of numbers. As of now, the Opposition is in no position to get the motion passed in the Lower House and then in the Senate. In an editorial, The Asian Wall Street Journal said: ``Simply no good will come out of a protracted political wrestling match that misdirects Government's attention for over a year. Before this crisis sinks the whole country in the mire, Mr. Estrada could do the people who elected him at least one favour. He could resign.''

The serious nature of the allegations - the accuser offering himself as ``evidence'' and thereby implicating himself - have all had the effect of undermining Mr. Estrada's public standing. For a country still trying to grope with democratic and economic realities, the crisis has come at a bad time. Only a few weeks ago, the Philippines was in the eye of the storm for the antics of the Abu Sayyaf rebels in the southern Philippines. Some hostages were freed in exchange for massive ransom payments through Libyan intermediaries; some others managed to flee after the military launched a massive operation on the southern island of Jolo.

There have also been calls for Mr. Estrada to declare his assets. ``How can the President expect other public officials to make full disclosure if he does not do the same? By doing so, he can restore public confidence in the law,'' Mr. Eufemio Domingo, outgoing chair of the Presidential Commission Against Graft and Corruption (PCAGC), stated. ``The key to accountability is transparency. The public expects the President to be transparent in all his dealings,'' Mr. Domingo added.

Stung by the charges, Mr. Estrada has declared that the Government will end its involvement in all forms of gambling. He has also been seen garnering support from different constituents. It is still early days in the ``jueteng'' scandal. If the President is able to hang on to his Congressional majority and the street protests are few and far between, then Mr. Estrada might still be able to hang on to office. But one thing is clear. His ability to govern has been hampered, his reputation besmirched. The barometer of public opinion, too, seems to have turned against him.

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