A pointer to thaw in Govt. line

By K. K. Katyal

NEW DELHI, DEC. 20. Even though expected, the extension of the ceasefire in Jammu and Kashmir beyond the month of Ramzan is considered significant: But far more meaningful are the pointers thrown by the Prime Minister, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee, today on the Government's thinking on resuming the dialogue with Pakistan.

There is a clear thaw in the tough line adopted by India against dealing with the military regime after the coup in Islamabad in October last year. For the first time in 14 months, New Delhi has shown preparedness to start what is more than a process of talks about talks - to initiate the dialogue itself.

Being in the nature of ``more of the same'', the cease-fire extension may not sound exciting. But think of the scenarios in the case of non-extension, and its importance will stand out.

All in all, an advance over the previous position is clearly discernible in today's statement. As against the earlier insistence on the ``end of cross-border terrorism'' by Pakistan as a precondition for fresh talks, there is a measure of flexibility about today's formulation. Reaffirming India's commitment to talks, it says that the ``existence of a suitable environment for such a process is self evidently necessary''. The decision to initiate necessary exploratory steps nearly amounts to an offer to resume ``composite dialogue''. India and Pakistan, as was known, were engaged in discussions (in terms of an agreement between the two foreign secretaries) on eight outstanding issues - or two plus six - the two being peace and security and Kashmir and the remaining six including terrorism, Sir Creek, economic and commercial cooperation.

The Lahore Declaration spoke of their agreement to intensify the efforts to resolve outstanding issues, ``including Jammu and Kashmir''. The dialogue India has in mind is composite, impliedly, with a priority for Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan which, at one stage, seemed to distance itself from the Lahore process, has now reaffirmed its faith.

The ``exploratory steps'' for the resumption of the dialogue, to be initiated by India, may have been the subject of informal preliminary exchanges through diplomatic channels. The Indian High Commissioner in Islamabad, Mr. Vijay Nambiar, was here recently for what turned out to be comprehensive consultations.

He called on the Prime Minister and met the External Affairs Minister, Mr. Jaswant Singh. It stands to reason that he, on his return, would have conveyed the latest Indian thinking to high- ups in Pakistan. Whether he got fresh feedback from them is not known. But it is tempting to view the timing of the Prime Minister's statement in this context.

Mr. Vajpayee's statement does not spell out the modalities of the exploratory exercise, perhaps because it is yet to be finalised. New Delhi may like to await a clearer and a more stable responses to its initiatives - first in ordering and then in extending the cease-fire. It may like to wait for the reaction of the Hurriyat leaders who, though divided, seem to have veered round to a positive position.

Also, India may like to await the emergence of a clear picture in Pakistan where the Chief Executive, General Pervez Musharraf, is under heavy pressure because of domestic factors, like the decision to exile the dismissed Prime Minister, Mr. Nawaz Sharif which - as is the case with every development in Pakistan - has a bearing on Islamabad's India policy.

The General has had a series of meetings with the corps commanders, regarded crucial in the speculative reports in the Pakistani media. He postponed his address to the nation (now it is scheduled for tonight). Could it be that Mr. Vajpayee left some matters unspelt because he preferred to wait for General Musharraf to enunciate his stand? Likewise, could it be that the Chief Executive delayed his address till after Mr. Vajpayee's statement?

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