Hashimoto in the ascendant

F.J. Khergamvala

TOKYO, JAN. 4. Friday is the last day for the Japanese Government as it is now established. From Saturday, the entire structure will be effectively reorganised, and with it begins the political re- ascendance of the architect of the reorganisation, Mr. Ryutaro Hashimoto.

Depending on certain variables, it may be a matter of time before Mr. Hashimoto leads the country again. Speculation has it that by March at the earliest or September the latest, Mr. Yoshiro Mori will be brought down, either by his own propensity for blunder or by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's largest faction, led by Mr. Hashimoto. There is great nervousness within the LDP about going into next July's Upper House elections under the present leader, Mr. Mori.

Mr. Hashimoto, 63, was Prime Minister until July 1998 when he had to step down after leading the ruling Liberal Democratic Party to an election debacle in the Upper House elections. He was re- inducted into government in a reshuffle of the Government of Mr. Yoshiro Mori last month. Mr. Hashimoto now holds charge of three of the most prominent issues facing the country and has considerably raised his own political profile after Mr. Mori was severely wounded in a challenge to his leadership from within the party in November. After five years of refusing to speak to a collective foreign media in Tokyo, Mr. Hashimoto has agreed to do so at the end of the month.

One of Mr. Hashimoto's responsibilities in the new Government is as State Minister in charge of Administrative Reform and concurrently Minister in charge of Okinawa and the Northern Territories. The restructuring of government that takes place from Saturday is directly Mr. Hashimoto's responsibility. Indeed, it was he who conceived it in 1996.

The central purpose was to transfer greater power, not just authority, from the bureaucracy to the elected politicians. More specifically, Mr. Hashimoto strengthened the Office of the Prime Minister. Under a revised Cabinet Law, the Prime Minister can initiate policy measures, rather than have the Cabinet act merely as a ratifying body for bureaucratic decision making, or what the Yomiuri calls cabinet ``autograph sessions.'' Next, in a further departure from Japanese practice, top-down management will be introduced, facilitated by a government within a government. The existing Prime Minister's Office is to be scrapped and the new Cabinet Office can step in to make decisions where government ministries fail to reach a consensus.

Overall, thanks to himself, should Mr. Hashimoto become Prime Minister again, he would find much enhancement in his authority and the powers to exercise it. A feature of this authority is a switch to a partial spoils system as in the U.S. One outstanding reason why analysts expect Mr. Hashimoto to move to oust Mr. Mori is that he has already let it be known that from Saturday, private sector executives will be appointed to an important economic and fiscal office within the Cabinet Office. Again, this is speculative but analysts believe these moves would not have been initiated had Mr. Hashimoto not been preparing the ground for himself.

Mr. Hashimoto's three charges, including Okinawa and the Northern Territories, give him the flexibility to manoeuvre between the public profile he paints on each issue, depending on its potential for political advantage. The Okinawa question could suddenly become high profile because of an outstanding issue with the U.S. on the time frame for a air base lease to U.S. forces. Likewise, Mr. Hashimoto is letting his principal rival, Mr. Yohei Kono, the Foreign Minister, deal with the Northern Territories because at the moment there is practically no hope of a resolution to that dispute with Russia.

Thus, while raising his profile, Mr. Hashimoto will pick his fights carefully. Mr. Mori is not willing to be a pushover. He has now ceased to speak extempore and compulsorily uses cue cards. In the next few weeks, Mr. Mori will be the first Japanese Prime Minister to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos. All in all, the government restructuring provides another ladder for the former Prime Minister, but also a new rampart for the present one to defend his position.

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Section  : International
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