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Tuesday, March 20, 2001

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Crucial foreign policy week for U.S.

By Sridhar Krishnaswami

WASHINGTON, MARCH 19. It is a crucial foreign policy week for the Bush administration where three foreign leaders are making their visits in the hope of turning around, or at least making a small impact, on Washington's world view. The Japanese Prime Minister, Mr. Yoshiro Mori, who arrived yesterday is meeting the President, Mr. George W Bush, this morning at the White House.

On Tuesday, it will be the Prime Minister of Israel, Mr. Ariel Sharon, who will be dropping by the White House. The Republican President and administration, who have consistently made the point that the West Asia peace process cannot proceed on an American timetable, are nevertheless concerned at the turn of events there, especially at the escalating violence.

And on Thursday, Mr. Bush will be meeting the Chinese Vice- Premier, Mr. Qian Qichen, in what will be a major and substantive one-on-one discussion the President will have had with a leading Chinese figure. For the record, it is said that the two leaders will be discussing a ``range'' of issues; but the expectation is that it will be more focused on the National Missile Defence System which Beijing vehemently opposes; and the possibility of the U.S. selling four Aegis class warships to Taiwan as a part of a larger and sophisticated arms shopping list.

There is also a fourth foreign policy ``event'' that is taking place - an envoy of the Taliban is meeting senior State Department and National Security Council officials today.The U.S. will want to know if the Taliban has fresh ideas on Osama bin Laden.

But, undeniably, the Bush administration is paying a lot of attention to East Asia and West Asia this week. Though Mr. Mori may be on the way out in Japan, the administration here certainly did not wish to give the impression of taking the meeting in a light-hearted fashion.

The Bush administration, which has constantly emphasised a shift in its Asia Pacific orientation with a reversion to Japan as the ``linchpin'' in the calculations in the East Asia/Pacific, is expected to play up the same theme today with Mr. Mori. And once again Washington is expected to go through with apologising for the Japanese fishing vessel by its submarine.

The Republican administration has not yet fine-tuned its West Asia policy and Mr. Sharon's visit could be the start of a more broad-based engagement of the U.S., though the parametres are yet to be defined in any clear fashion. Mr. Sharon is scheduled to meet the National Security Advisor, Ms. Condoleeza Rice, the Secretary of State, Gen. Colin Powell, and the Head of the Central Intelligence Agency, Mr. John Tenet.

To a very large extent, a lot of attention is being paid to Mr. Bush's meeting with the Chinese Vice-Premier this Thursday. Like the Russians, the Chinese have indicated that they are interested in talking to the Americans about the National Missile Defence System, but Beijing has made no bones of the fact that it is totally opposed to any enhanced arms shipment to Taiwan that includes four Aegis class destroyers.

When it comes to China, Mr. Bush has to do a careful balancing act. The President knows the longer and broader interests of the U.S. vis-a-vis China; and at the same time he is under tremendous pressure from the Conservatives, Republicans and the pro-Taiwan lobby which is keen on going through with the ambitious arms shopping list for Taiwan which is considered as a renegade province by China.

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