IUML sitting pretty in its strongholds

By K.P. Pushparaj

MALAPPURAM, APRIL 30. The UDF candidates contesting the Assembly elections from the three neighbouring constituencies - Tanur, Tirur and Tirurangadi - are the sitting MLAs of the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML). Traditionally, the electorate of the three constituencies have elected only an IUML leader to represent them in the Assembly ever since the first elections to the State Assembly in 1957. In all probability, the 12th election to the State Assembly this time is likely to repeat history in these three constituencies.

Tanur

In Tanur, the LDF has fielded a local man, Mr. K.V. Siddique of the CPI(M), to take on the UDF challenge. The IUML has fielded the sitting MLA, Mr. Abdurrab, son of the late Avukkaderkutty Naha, to retain the seat.

Ever since the first elections to the State Assembly in 1957, the electorate in this constituency had elected to the Assembly, an IUML leader.

It was the IUML stalwart, the late C.H. Muhammed Koya, who make it to the Assembly first from the constituency in 1957 and again in 1960. In 1965, Dr. C.M. Kutty was elected from the constituency, M. Moideenkutty Haji in 1967 and Mr. Syed Ummer Bhafaki in 1970. U.A. Beeran represented the constituency in 1977 and later Mr. E. Ahmed for the next three elections - in 1980, 1982 and 1987.

P. Seethi Haji was elected from the constituency in the 1991 elections. Following his death, Kutty Ahmed Kutty of the IUML retained the seat for his party in the by-elections held in 1992. Consequent on Kutty's shift to the nearby constituency of Tirurangadi, Mr. P.K. Abdurrab contested the 1996 election and represented the constituency for the last five years.

Considering the huge margin with which the IUML candidates have won the elections from the constituency, it has been and is likely to be only a routine political exercise for its opponents. Statistics show that there has been some erosion in the victory margin for the UDF since 1987. While it stood at 35,785 in 1987, it declined to 25,847 votes in 1991 and 20,013 in the last elections. And, for the LDF the election is an attempt to penetrate into a UDF domain and win the maximum number of votes.

The BJP candidate in Tanur is Mr. Rajeevan Master. The party had a vote share ranging between nine and 12 per cent of the votes polled during the last three elections. Tanur is a coastal area, with a chunk of fishing community forming part of the 1.5 lakh- odd electorate.

Tirur

In Tirur, the IUML candidate is the former Education Minister, Mr. E.T. Muhammed Basheer, against whom the LDF has fielded Mr. A.P. Abdul Wahab of the INL. The BJP candidate here is the party district president, Mr. N. Vasudevan Master.

This constituency has stood by the IUML ever since 1957. This is evident from the fact that K. Moideenkutty Haji, who used to be elected from Tirur since 1957, suffered a setback when he switched sides in 1977 to the then breakaway group of the IUML - All Indian Muslim League (AIML). However, he was again elected from the same constituency in 1987, of course, after he returned to the IUML fold.

The IUML candidate who defeated Moideenkutty Haji in 1977 was Mr. P.T. Kunhutty Haji. He represented the constituency again in 1980. But, it was the turn of U.A. Beeran to represent the constituency in the 1982 elections to the State Assembly only to give Moideenkutty Haji (who rejoined the IUML after his association with AIML for about 10 years), a sixth term in the Assembly in the 1987 elections.

Then, it was the turn of Mr. E.T. Muhammed Basheer, who made it to the Assembly from Tirur in 1991 and 1996. The League leader is seeking a re-election from the constituency for a third time in succession. He won the seat defeating his nearest LDF rival by over 12,505 votes in 1991 and then by 9,684 votes in the last elections.

As far as the LDF nominee, the INL candidate, Mr. Abdul Wahab, is concerned, the battle he is preparing for is purely political. The LDF machinery is all geared up to support their nominee to fight it out. And, the fact that Tirur is one among the three seats allotted to the party by the LDF, makes it all the more important for the INL to put up a good show this time.

The vote share of the BJP in the constituency has ranged between seven to 11 per cent since 1982 elections. But, it is believed that the presence of a prominent BJP leader of the district would help the party garner more votes this time.

The voting pattern of the constituency during the last five elections was that the LDF (rather the main rival of the IUML candidate) polled around 40 per cent votes while the IUML candidate won about 50 per cent of the valid votes polled. And, with no significant change seemingly witnessed in voters' political perspectives, it would be a hard nut to crack by the LDF this time too.

Tirurangadi

It was from this constituency that Mr. A.K. Antony was elected to the Assembly within six months of his assuming office as Chief Minister in May 1995. Winning with an impressive margin of over 22,000 votes, Mr. Antony had contested from the seat at the IUML's invitation, thanks to their confidence about their undisputed sway in the constituency.

But, the situation would have been different had the Opposition been united and the votes polled in favour of the LDF, INL and PDP candidates gone into the same kitty. In fact, it was the plurality that helped a safe landing for Mr.Antony in the constituency and also saved the IUML's face. The votes polled in favour of the LDF, INL and PDP put together were a couple of thousands more than what Mr. Antony had secured (while the LDF nominee, Prof. N.A. Kareem, had secured 27,353 votes, the INL candidate, Mr. Majid Haji, bagged 9,098 votes and the PDP' Mr. Pandalam Abdul Majid polled 15,613 votes, to take the total to over 52,000 votes, a couple of thousand votes more than what Mr. Antony secured).

And, it was this simple arithmetic that had prompted the LDF to join hands with the INL and the PDP in the last elections. In fact, Tirurangadi was the only Assembly constituency in the State where all the anti-UDF parties, barring the BJP, joined hands and fielded a common candidate, Mr. A.V. Abdu Haji, to put up a joint fight against the IUML candidate, Mr. Kutty Ahmed Kutty, in the last elections. However, its earnest efforts in consolidating all the anti-UDF votes did not achieve the desired result for the LDF.

But, surely the joint fight by the LDF-INL-PDP combine, in an effort to consolidate the anti-UDF votes, helped to bring down the margin of victory of the UDF candidate. Against a 20,000-plus margin, Mr. Antony secured in the May '95 by-elections, the victory margin of the IUML candidate last time was below 10,000 votes.

As in the case of Tanur and Tirur constituencies, the Tirurangadi constituency also has a long tradition of nominating only an IUML candidate to represent them in the State Assembly. The late K Avukkader Kutty Naha, a veteran Muslim League leader who headed several Ministries and also a former deputy Chief Minister of the State, represented the constituency for 30 years (in 1957, 1960, 1965, 1967, 1970, 1977, 1980 and 1982 elections).

Mr. C.T. Kunhalikutty Keyi represented the constituency in 1987 and U.A. Beeran in the 1991 elections. Consequent on Beeran's resignation from the IUML, Mr. Antony contested the bye-elections from the constituency in 1995. Mr. Kutty Ahmed Kutty, who represented the Tanur constituency since 1992 (following the death of Seethi Haji), was shifted to Tirurangadi to face the joint-fight put up by the LDF when he made it to the Assembly in 1996.

The BJP has a 10-plus per cent of vote share in the constituency. Last time, the party's candidate, Mr. K. Janardhanan, secured around 10,000 votes. But, this time the BJP is fielding a Muslim candidate to penetrate into the Muslim vote bank. With the leader of the BJP-found `Nyunapaksha Morcha', Mr. P.T. Ali Haji, canvassing votes for the BJP this time, the party hopes to add up to its creditable presence in the constituency.

Thanks to the `1996-model test' conducted by the LDF in the constituency, proved time and again that the UDF, which virtually means the IUML in this constituency, is not disheartened. And, with the PDP votes, whatever little they have in their fold, going into UDF kitty, it is very unlikely that the trends in this constituency will be different this time too.

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Section  : State Elections
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