Buddhadeb will tilt the balance

By Mushirul Hasan and Suranjan Das

KOLKATA, MAY 2. ``I would certainly vote, but my vote is a secret,'' said Abdul Ahad, a van-puller in the Muslim majority village of Mallikpur in 24 Paraganas district. This cautionary note cuts across the 48,123,469 voters in Bengal who will elect their 294 MLAs next week. Much of this is the result of inter- party violence that has led to deaths and marred the campaign in certain areas. ``Political cleansing is the order of the day; civil society has ceased to exist,'' says Ms. Krishna Bose, Trinamool Congress member of Parliament from Jadavpur. Her view is hotly contested by Left activists, who accuse her party of instigating violence.

The election fever is sweeping Bengal. Flags flutter from shops and houses, though streets everywhere were deserted on May Day. In areas where community TV sets do not exist, people gather around the central square of their village to discuss how best to ensure a better future for themselves. ``Politicians come and go, but we have to think of a party that can serve our present and safeguard our future,'' says an emaciated peasant in Kalikapur village.

The coming election is important not only for this peasant but for the future of the CPI(M)-led government and its most formidable adversary, Ms. Mamata Banerjee. For the Marxists the battlelines are clearly drawn. A clear-cut victory would be interpreted as a vote of confidence after the exit of Mr. Jyoti Basu, who relinquished power after nearly 24 years. More importantly, it would bolster the stature of his successor, Mr. Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee. Already, the CPI(M) is sensing victory, following weeks of confusion and uncertainty.

Perceptions matter more than policies. Mr. Bhattacharjee, a Presidency College graduate, is attracting huge crowds at his election rallies, and has successfully established himself as a pragmatic and accessible public figure. He is not merely Mr. Basu's successor, but is widely regarded as someone who has so quickly left his personality imprint on this campaign. Many hope that his economic blueprint, more in tune with the demands for liberalisation, would rescue Bengal from underdevelopment and industrial stagnation, though sections of the party claim that such a blueprint already exists and it is being implemented.

What has made the difference to Mr. Bhattacharjee's stature is the attitude of the urban elite, who have shifted their political allegiances from time to time in the past, and for whom land reforms or anti-poverty programmes count for nothing. After weeks of dithering, they grudgingly concede that the present Chief Minister inspires confidence in trade and business circles, and in the absence of a viable alternative, the Left Front is their best bet.

Over and above everything else, Mr. Bhattacharjee's image of a caring, upright, fair-minded and affable leader is a major political asset. His message is simple, but different. His style, hallmark of a bhadralok culture, is endearing and reassuring. This factor counts more in Bengal than anywhere else in the country. In a society where caste polarisation has not taken place, this cultivated image of the Chief Minister will bolster the fortunes of the CPI(M) in the elections. Indeed, the balance will be tilted by the presence of the 56-year-old Mr. Bhattacharjee rather than the party's own record in the past or the energy of the cadres. Party officials at the Muzzaffar Ahmed Bhavan on Alimuddin Street may not concede, but at this juncture he is their main trump card.

Yet, the going will be tough, if one considers the rapid decline in the Left Front's share of votes - from 54.52 per cent in the 1980 parliamentary elections to 47.35 per cent in 1996, and 47.35 in 1998. In the Assembly elections, too, its share of votes has plummeted from 51.6 per cent in 1982 to 48.02 per cent in 1996.

Mr. Anil Biswas, State secretary of the CPI(M), attributes the discontent towards the Left Front to the rising expectations of the expanding bourgeoisie and the Government's failure to fulfil all their needs. Fair enough. But, then, why should such people now repose their confidence in a party that has failed to deliver during the last 24 years? Especially since the State has made no rapid strides during the Left Front's last 5-year term.

On the plus side, land reforms have been this Government's major contribution towards changing the balance of power in rural Bengal. But public memory is notoriously short. ``The young have sadly erased the revolutionary struggles from their memory; they have forgotten, moreover, years of Congress misrule,'' says Mr. Biswas. But Ms. Mamata Banerjee's camp followers, on the other hand, catalogue various factors, including rising unemployment, the stultification of industrial growth and the deteriorating law and order situation, to legitimise their ``do or die'' campaign against the Government. The point is well taken. Disillusionment with the Left is not confined to the middle class but extends to the peasantry who are fast losing the land to the same jotedars who were made to part with their land. ``Marxism'', says Ms. Madhabi Mukherjee, celluloid star of yesteryears pitted against the Chief Minister, ``is an imported doctrine, a seasonal flower that is bound to wilt sooner than later.''

The flower may not wilt as yet, and yet the road to electoral success is strewn with numerous difficulties. But one thing is for sure. Unlike some of the other States, Bengal will remain ideologically polarised for decades to come and the battlelines will always be drawn between the Left and the centrist forces. The revolutionary fervour is considerably diluted by the exigencies of time, but the Left is unlikely to abandon its commitment to social justice and equality.

The import of their message is all but lost to the Opposition parties. Today, the Congress is gasping for breath and its chances of winning are limited to its traditional strongholds. Mr. A. B. A. Ghani Khan Choudhury is flexing his muscles in Malda, whereas the Congress-backed Independents, described by the PCC president, Mr. Pranab Mukherjee, as ``unbridled horses'', are up in arms in Murshidabad. This is bad news for a party that is devoid of any programme that would put it back on the rails. It is already fragmented and weakened by a divided leadership.

The BJP may corner a few seats on the strength of the unsettled conditions on the Indo-Bangladesh border, but its long- term survival on Bengal's political landscape is at best a remote possibility. Although the BJP vote shot up to 11.36 per cent in the 1991 Assembly polls owing to the Hindutva wave, it dropped to 6.45 per cent in 1996. This time round its share of votes may plummet further.

In effect, what keeps the midnight oil burning at Alimuddin Street is the upsurge of support for the Trinamool. Fiery and passionate, though impetuous, Ms. Banerjee has successfully assailed some of the communist strongholds: Didi aschke, CPI(M) bhay pacche (The CPI(M) is scared as Didi comes on) was the cry at a Trinamool rally in Calcutta on May Day. Yet her decision to withdraw from the NDA, followed by her hurriedly concluded pact with the Congress, has dampened the enthusiasm of her supporters.

Even if she succeeds in rallying round her supporters in the days to come and splits the Left Front votes, caused by the PDS, she will need to do well in Birbhum, Burdwan, Bankura, Purulia, Hoogly and Midnapore. These districts account for as many as 118 seats, or approximately 40 per cent of the total seats. If the outcome of the 1996 Assembly and the 1999 parliamentary elections is any guide, the Left is sure to press home its advantage. In the event, Ms. Banerjee's political fate will be sealed in Bengal, her principal political akhara and her diminishing role in State politics will affect her bargaining position in New Delhi.

The elections in West Bengal are poised for an interesting countdown. Whether the people endorse Mr. Bhattacharjee's dictum, ``the only alternative to the Left is a new, improved Left'', or accept Ms. Banerjee's call ``for change'', will be known on May 13 when electronic voting machines from 61,542 voting centres produce the results. Whatever the verdict, the results will have far-reaching implications for Bengal as well for the future of coalition politics at the Centre.

(The writers are historians of modern India.)

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