A test for Mamata Banerjee

AFTER HAVING ESTABLISHED herself as the rallying point of the anti-Left Front sentiments in West Bengal, Ms. Mamata Banerjee will now face the more serious challenge of taking on the well oiled election machinery of the CPI(M)-led combine in the State. The performance of the Trinamool Congress in the 1998 Lok Sabha polls had established that Ms. Banerjee could take away with her most of the Congress(I)'s traditional support base (in and around Kolkata). And this was followed by the exodus of a majority of the Congress(I)'s MLAs. It was in this context that Ms. Sonia Gandhi ``instructed'' her party's West Bengal unit to strike an alliance with the Trinamool Congress even if the deal meant denying renomination to a section of those MLAs who had consistently refused to accept Ms. Banerjee as their leader in the State. That Ms. Banerjee could manage to force the Congress(I) to concede to her the leadership in the battle against the CPI(M)-led combine was indeed an achievement; all those senior leaders in the faction-ridden State unit of the party - including the Pradesh Congress(I) chief, Mr. Pranab Mukherjee - were kept out of the negotiations. But then, the difficult test for Ms. Banerjee lies ahead. The May 10 polls to the State Assembly will be critical for her political survival.

The West Bengal polls are of critical importance to the Congress(I) too. Even if it is true that the Congress(I)'s stakes are not all that high in that the party is only a junior partner in the Mamata-led alliance, the decision to join the front in West Bengal has disturbed the Congress(I)'s equations with the Left at the national level. By agreeing to join the Mamata bandwagon in West Bengal, the Congress(I) will have to give up any hopes of cooperation from the Left at the national level in its efforts to replace the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance at the Centre. And given the numbers in the Lok Sabha - particularly the strength of the Left parties - any attempt towards this end is bound to come a cropper. The West Bengal poll is bound to have its impact on the Congress(I)'s scheme of things in this larger context. Add to this the revolt from within the party's State unit as well as in the Trinamool Congress. There are reports of disenchantment in the Trinamool Congress ranks over the choice of candidates in several parts of West Bengal. And there is the outburst by Mr. Ajit Panja against Ms. Mamata Banerjee - accusing her of stifling democracy within the party. All these may not be problems specific to the Trinamool Congress alone. But then, it is a fact that Ms. Banerjee's authority within the party had never been challenged hitherto. Add to this the attitude of Mr. A.B.A. Ghani Khan Chowdhury towards the alliance on his home turf - Malda. There is no way that the Trinamool-Congress(I) combine can gloss over these factors in the days to come.

Be that as it may, the ruling Left Front too has problems of its own. Having been in power for as long as 24 years, the anti- incumbency factor is something that the CPI(M) and its allies cannot wish away. In addition to this, there has been a series of problems within the CPI(M) leading to the exit of some important local leaders of the party in and around Kolkata and also in the northern districts (Darjeeling in particular) where the party organisation no longer exists. There have also been the instances of defiance by a member of the State Cabinet, Mr. Subash Chakravarty, known for his skills in mobilising crowds for the party in the past couple of decades. There are reports of Mr. Chakravarty joining hands with Ms. Mamata Banerjee. Add to these the fact that the Left Front will have to do without the charisma of Mr. Jyoti Basu. It may be true that the Left parties had not depended entirely on any individual. But then, Mr. Buddadeb Bhattacharjee's short term as Chief Minister was marked by escalating violence in many parts of West Bengal. The West Bengal poll scene is indeed marked by a great deal of uncertainty.

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