Social and political wind in favour of UDF

By Girish Menon

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM, MAY 8. The social and political wind in Central and South Kerala appears to be blowing in favour of the UDF. This is in stark contrast to the 1996 election when several communities and segments had lined up against the UDF and dashed its hope to return to power.

In Central Kerala, the UDF has the upper hand and is expected to do well in Ernakulam district in particular. The Opposition coalition had virtually swept the local bodies polls in September last year in Central Kerala, which has always shown a pro-UDF tendency in the past. But it is South Kerala which is going to give the UDF the required ruling majority. This makes the contest very keen in the southern districts, which has a good number of seats which usually return candidates with marginal majorities. And the politics of these seats is enmeshed in the unique caste and communal factors.

In 1996, the recalcitrant NSS leadership could wreak havoc for the UDF in as many as 20 constituencies across South Kerala. The Ezhava community also had exercised its vote against the UDF in the aftermath of the Sivagiri issue. The abkari lobby, with strong links to the community, had also turned against the UDF at that time.

This time, the NSS and the SNDP have announced their unique brand of equi-distance policy towards both the UDF and the LDF. The UDF leadership could get some consolation from the fact that the equi-distance policy is not negatively working for it. Even though these two Hindu organisations, which account for a powerful vote bank in South Kerala, have not explicitly mentioned the inner meaning of their policies, its contours are evidently in favour of the UDF.

Smaller segments like the Viswakarmas, Dheevaras, Dalit communities and several other organisations representing various sections, which have stood with the LDF have come openly in favour of the UDF. Even apolitical organisations such as the Kerala Vyapari Vyavasayi Ekopana Samithi, have thrown their weight behind the UDF. In electoral terms these might be marginal, but it does contain a message and is a reflection of the strong anti-incumbency factor working against the Government.

One of the biggest advantages for the UDF in this election is the fact that it has succeeded in gaining good ground among the two most prominent Hindu communities in the State. Nevertheless, it would have to reckon with the inroads the BJP appears to have made in several parts of South Kerala, mainly on account of the strong communal card played by the LDF in attracting minority votes, particularly the non-Catholic Christian denominations.

Both the LDF and the UDF have been left guessing by the BJP's strategy. The LDF finds a tacit understanding between the UDF and the BJP, while the UDF feels that the BJP might exercise its votes in south Kerala to defeat the Congress as part of a larger long-term strategy.

Two developments are worth noting. The BJP has not fielded candidates against some of the UDF parties and the entire top rung national leaders have spent more time campaigning in the south. The most prominent constituencies where the BJP has not fielded a candidate are Thiruvananthapuram West, Pala, and Piravom, which are contested by the leaders of three UDF parties -- the CMP, the Kerala Congress(M) and the Kerala Congress (Jacob) respectively.

Obviously, the BJP hopes to bring about a cleavage in the UDF by meting out preferential treatment. It believes that it would be able to make a dent in some of the marginal constituencies contested by the Congress by using its supporters votes to defeat that party. The fact that BJP's national leaders have been concentrating their campaign in South Kerala cannot be lost on the UDF leadership.

One consolation however is the latent differences between the BJP and the RSS leadership. This has become evident with the RSS call to its cadres to exercise their conscience vote. The UDF's position that it would seek the votes of all segments of society is also significant.

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Section  : State Elections
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