UDF takes exit poll results with a pinch of salt

By Girish Menon

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM, MAY 11. The UDF has taken the exit poll results with a pinch of salt. Officially, the UDF leaders would take the momentary pleasure at being given such a large majority, though unofficially, they hold the view that the exit poll results do not reflect the socio-political reality of the State.

UDF leaders are willing to accept the theory that the coalition is heading for a victory, with a majority in the range of 80 to 85 seats. The exit polls, conducted by Doordarshan had predicted that the UDF would win 100 seats, with the LDF taking 37 and others, including the BJP, taking three seats.

There are valid reasons for the extra-caution in the UDF camp. A 100-seat victory for the UDF in practical terms would mean total washout for the LDF, particularly the CPI(M), which is contesting in as many as 77 seats, including the independents it has fielded. Most of the UDF leaders would grudgingly accept the fact that the LDF continues to be a powerful force, irrespective of the discredit its Government earned in the last five years and that its influence has not gone down to such extent.

The UDF lost power in 1996 mainly on account of the intra-party and inter-party feuds, which found it losing as many as 13 to 15 seats. The most prominent among these included Kaduthuruthy, Kalloppara, Idukki, Palakkad, and several constituencies in Thrissur (including the Thrissur and Kozhikode Lok Sabha seats). The UDF had banked on a strong electoral support on the strength of its arrack ban. Besides, there was no anti-incumbency factor at work at that time against the Antony Government.

The only problem that the UDF faced at that time was related to social factors, with the NSS and the dominant leadership of the SNDP being estranged with the UDF. In this elections, all these factors had been corrected, with the strong anti-incumbency factor against the LDF Government expected to work in favour of the UDF. The LDF slid into disrepute quite faster in the last eight months of its rule, beginning from the Plus two issue, the liquor tragedy and culminating in the financial crisis which brought the development process to a grinding halt.

The LDF always fell back on its purported good will generated through its People's Plan Campaign, despite the controversies over its implementation. The CPI(M) and the Congress still continue to be the single largest force spread out evenly across the various constituencies in the State. In this context, it would be preposterous to think UDF would win 100 seats.

The previous occasion when the Congress-led coalition won such a massive mandate was in the 1977 elections, held soon after the Emergency. The political situation was quite different then, and was not complicated.

But ever since the present coalition system evolved in the early 1980s, with the LDF and the UDF saddled firmly in Kerala polity, it has been difficult for either of the two coalitions to break ranks in terms of total votes polled and the number of seats won. Since 1991, the political fabric appears to be further distorted, with communities across the board assuming more clout in terms of influencing the voting pattern.

In other words, the voting pattern in Kerala in the last few elections have been dependent on the management of social- political equations by political parties. This appears to have been unchanged in the current elections as well. In any case, the results of the 2001 Assembly elections would become a good subject for academic research, especially in terms of voting percentage, and the relative shifts in voting patterns and percentage of votes polled. If the BJP were to win a seat, as predicted by the exit polls, the stage would be set for a polarisation of sorts. The impact of this development is unlikely to be confined to a single party, it seems.

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Section  : State Elections
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