Erosion in BJP's vote share in Kasaragod

By Mohammed Nazeer

KASARAGOD, MAY 14. While there is hardly any doubt about a strong consolidation of anti-BJP votes that worked to defeat the BJP's high-profile candidates, Mr. C.K. Padmanabhan and Mr. P.K. Krishnadas, in the Manjeswaram and Kasaragod constituencies respectively, the BJP's charge that the CPI(M) transferred its votes in thousands in favour of the UDF candidates to trounce them does lack conviction in the face of the perceivable erosion of BJP votes in the two constituencies where the party is definitely a force to reckon with.

The margins by which Mr. Padmanabhan and Mr. Krishnadas were defeated by the IUML candidates, Mr. Cherkalam Abdulla and Mr. C.T. Ahmed Ali, in Manjeswaran and Kasaragod respectively are sufficient cause for concern for the BJP. The BJP's allegation, not wholly unfounded, about vote-shifting by the CPI(M) in the two constituencies would have carried some credibility, had the rival UDF candidates won the seats by a margin of a couple of hundred votes. While Mr. Abdulla's margin is 10,896 votes more than his 1996 margin of 2,292 votes, Mr. Ahmed Ali's - 17,995 votes - is beyond all expectations. Neither the LDF nor the UDF believes that the LDF's `largess' alone can give them such high margins.

Even if the BJP candidates' debacle in Manjeswaram and Kasaragod is attributed to cross-voting by the CPI(M), the BJP will introspect on the erosion of its votes in the constituencies over the years. In Manjeswaram, the BJP's vote share is 32 per cent, exactly two per cent less than its 1996 share. It is still less than the party's share in 1991 - 33.62 per cent - when the late K.G. Marar was fielded to win the seat. In the 1987 election, the BJP polled 33.08 per cent votes. Citing the erosion of the BJP's vote share, UDF and LDF circles here also pick holes in the party's claim during the campaign that nearly 5000-7000 of the new voters included in the voters list are BJP voters. The LDF's vote share in the constituency here has also come down from 23.71 per cent in 1996 to the latest share of 21.64 per cent, while the UDF's has gone up from 36.41 in 1996 to 44.31 per cent.

The BJP's share of votes in Kasaragod has also come down to 30.97 per cent from 31.01 per cent in the 1996 Assembly election. While party circles say that the vote share has gone up from 26.68 per cent votes it polled in the 1999 Lok Sabha election, the party failed to even secure the 1987 vote share of 31.16 per cent here despite the fact that the entire party machinery was streamlined here as in Manjeswaram in its bid to `open its account' in the State Assembly. As in Manjeswaram, the CPI(M)'s share fell to 20.06 per cent from 24.95 per cent in 1996 while the UDF's share increased by 12.51 per cent during the period.

The district-wise figures also indicate a decline in the BJP's share of votes. In the just concluded election, the BJP polled a total of 14.01 per cent votes in the district as against 16.50 per cent votes it polled in the 1996 Assembly election. The party's present share is still 0.28 per cent votes less than what the BJP candidate polled in the 1999 Lok Sabha election. The LDF's general decline of vote share in North Kerala is reflected in the district. Its total vote share now is 40.53 per cent as against 42.35 per cent in 1996, while the UDF polled 43.90 per cent votes as against 39.40 per cent votes in 1996.

Even the BJP leadership here admits that a chunk of its votes may have gone to the Congress candidate, Mr. C.K. Sreedharan, in Uduma because of the latter's stature as a senior advocate in the district. But even party circles here cannot digest the drop of its votes from 13 per cent in 1996 to 8.62 per cent now. While the LDF, which retained the seat now, increased its vote share from 45.99 per cent in 1996 to the present 48.76 per cent, the UDF also improved its strength - from 36.59 per cent in 1996 to 41.26 per cent now.

The BJP electoral presence in Hosdurg constituency is confined to just 6.39 per cent of the electorate, nearly one per cent less than its share in 1996. The LDF vote share here has fallen to 48.79 per cent from 49.90 per cent in 1996, while the UDF share rose to 43.78 per cent from 40.51 per cent six years ago. In Thrikkarippur, the BJP workers and supporters might have cast their votes for the UDF candidate as it had not fielded its own party candidate here. It has nearly three per cent votes here. The UDF polled nearly 2 per cent votes more than its vote share in 1996 (41.52 per cent). The LDF candidate, Mr. K.P. Satheesh Chandran, however, polled 1.84 percent votes more than what he polled in 1996 in this bastion of the LDF.

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Section  : State Elections
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