Fresh formulations on cards for Indo-Pak. talks

By Atul Aneja

NEW DELHI, JUNE 20. In the run-up to their summit, India and Pakistan are working on new ``win-win'' formulations which will address the Kashmir issue as well as New Delhi's concerns about cross-border infiltrations.

According to highly-placed government sources, Pakistan has so far stated that India should accept Kashmir as ``disputed territory.'' But in an indication of flexibility, the Pakistani Foreign Secretary, Mr. Inamul Haq, has also described Kashmir as the ``main hurdle'' in Indo-Pakistan relations.

Neither of these formulations is likely to be accepted by India. Sources say that the trick now lies in crystallising a diplomatic stance which is acceptable to both the sides. Without a breakthrough on the semantics related to Kashmir, it will be difficult to advance on a broadbased Indo-Pak agenda, they say.

As the debate gathers momentum, one view which has so far emerged is to define Kashmir as a ``disputed border.'' Without any mention of details, this coinage renders itself to interpretation which can be turned advantageous to both sides. As far as India is concerned, it can be argued that the only dispute it has with Pakistan revolves around the border alignment in Pakistan- occupied Kashmir and the Northern areas. Such a stance is consistent with the all-party resolution on the territorial status of Kashmir which was adopted in 1994. On the contrary, Pakistan, on its part, could also interpret the definition to its advantage by adopting a ``maximalist'' position on the Kashmir border.

While addressing the Kashmir issue suitably, India will be looking forward to a concrete Pakistani declaration on cross- border terrorism. Specifically, India would like a commitment by Gen. Musharraf in one form on curbing infiltrations in Kashmir. Within government circles, there is a view that the General should declare a ``moratorium' on infiltrations. Such a commitment, however, may not be easily forthcoming. By curbing the ingresses in Kashmir, Pakistan may be depriving itself of its most effective leverage over India.

In case a breakthrough on both counts - Kashmir as well as infiltrations - could be achieved, the Indo-Pak agenda will naturally get widened. There is already an internal debate in government circles on encouraging the intermingling of Kashmiri populations on both sides of the Line of Control (LoC). The Army, for instance, is not averse to the principle to the perocity of LoC in carefully monitored segments. In fact, there is a view emerging in government circles that a separate committee which will discuss these issues be formed as part of an Indo-Pak dialogue architecture.

On the Indo-Iran gas pipeline over Pakistani territory, the Government is veering to the view that the project has serious political overtones. In case, the proposal goes through, it will boost Pakistan as well as Gen. Musharraf's international image greatly. By accepting a pipeline along the overland route, India in fact, would signal to the international community that the Pakistani state is in the process of acquiring political stability.

The pipeline could also benefit Gen. Musharraf personally. Criticised as a ``dictator'', Gen. Musharraf, with the pipeline through, has a fair chance of making a transition from a ``military dictator'' to a `` forthright reformer.''

Aware that Gen. Musharraf's visit may be a turning point in his political carrier, India is unlikely to relent on anything including a land route for the pipeline easily. The stage, in fact, is set for hard bargain between New Delhi and Islamabad. Much would, however, depend on the personal chemistry between the Pakistani guest and the Prime Minister, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee. It is now clear that the coming dialogue will be conducted along a ``top-down'' pattern. In other words, the initiative in the talks will be retained by the two leaders while officials will be issued suitable instructions as the high-stake dialogue progresses.

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