Growth rate slashed to 5.2 p.c.

By Our Special Correspondent

NEW DELHI, JUNE 29. The slowdown in the economy which was detected last year has now been confirmed by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) which has now put out revised estimates to show that the gross domestic product (GDP) grew only 5.2 per cent during 2000-01. The advance estimates put out in February had projected the growth rate to be 6 per cent.

At this level, the GDP growth rate is back to the 1992-93 level when the economy grew at 5.3 per cent. Since then, the growth rates have been high, going up to 7.8 per cent in 1996-97, except for a dip down to 4.8 per cent in 1997-98. The 1999-2000 growth rate was 6.4 per cent.

The sectors which brought down the revised rate as compared to the advance estimates are agriculture, forestry and fishing which grew only 0.2 per cent against the earlier estimates of 0.9 per cent, mining and quarrying which actually grew 3.7 per cent and not 4.5 per cent as estimated earlier and electricity, gas and water supply at 4.7 per cent against 5.6 per cent expected earlier.

Other sectors too actually grew less than expected when the advance estimates were put out. For instance, manufacturing was down to 5.6 per cent against the advance estimates of 6.4 per cent, construction was up by only 5.5 per cent as compared to 8.7 per cent and trade, hotels, transport and communication actually grew by 6.9 per cent against the earlier estimates of a 8 per cent growth. Even financing, insurance, real estate and business services grew by 9.1 per cent against the earlier expectation of 9.6 per cent growth. Only community, social and personal services were up 7.8 per cent against the earlier estimates of 7.6 per cent.

In actual terms, the GDP at factor cost at constant (1993-94) prices in 2000-01 is now estimated at Rs. 12,11,747 crores against Rs. 12,21,174 crores estimated earlier, showing a growth rate of 5.2 per cent against the 6 per cent growth estimated earlier. The quick estimates of GDP during 1999-2000 had put it at Rs. 11,51,991 crores.

The net national income at factor cost (national income) at 1993- 94 prices is now estimated at Rs. 10,63,479 crores compared to the earlier estimates of Rs. 10,72,906 crores during 2000-01. This reflects a 5.2 per cent growth over the 1999-2000 national income of Rs. 10,11,224 crores, which was a 6.6 per cent increase over the preceding year's national income.

The per capita income in real terms (1993-94) prices during 2000- 01 is estimated to be Rs. 10,561 against the earlier estimate of Rs. 10,654.

The quick estimates for 1999-2000 had put the per capita income at Rs. 10,204. The growth in per capita income in 2000-01 over 1999-2000 is estimated at 3.5 per cent against a 4.8 per cent growth in the preceding year.

The population during 2000-01 has been estimated to be 1,007 million. GDP at factor cost in terms of current prices is estimated at Rs. 19,78,042 crores during 2000-01, showing a growth rate of 10.7 per cent over the quick estimates of GDP for 1999-2000 of Rs. 17,86,459 crores. The net national product at current prices is now estimated to be Rs. 17,65,238 crores as compared to Rs. 15,90,301 crores during 1999-2000, showing an increase of 11 per cent. The per capita income at current prices is estimated at Rs. 17,530 as compared to Rs. 16,047 in 1999- 2000. The increase works out to 9.2 per cent.

The CSO has also put out the GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2000-01 which showed a growth rate of 3.8 per cent only. The GDP in this quarter was Rs. 3,29,244 crores against Rs. 3,17,235 crores in the corresponding period in 1999-2000.

The growth rates in the four quarters of 2000-01 show that it was 6.1 per cent in the first quarter, 6.2 per cent in the second quarter, 5 per cent in the third quarter and 3.8 per cent in the last quarter.

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