Battle lines drawn in Sri Lanka

By Nirupama Subramanian

COLOMBO, JULY 3. With the Opposition United National Party today deciding to vote against the extension of Sri Lanka's Emergency regulations, all eyes have now turned to Mecca, where six parliamentarians - who could make or break the vote - have gone on a pilgrimage.

The six MPs belong to the faction of the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) that pulled out of the ruling People's Alliance (PA) coalition last month, reducing the Government to a minority in Parliament.

A seventh parliamentarian of the faction is in Chennai for medical treatment. The vote to extend the Emergency is taken every month and this time it is scheduled for Friday.

It will be the first test of strength for the Government after the SLMC's walk out ahead of an Opposition no- confidence motion against it later this month.

The Government has warned that defeating the motion to extend the Emergency would be an ``anti-national'' act, as it would automatically lead to the de-proscription of the LTTE.

However, the UNP parliamentary group today decided that it would vote against the extension. A party statement said the Prevention of Terrorism Act and other constitutional provisions were sufficient to deal with the LTTE and challenged the Government to prove its majority.

The battle lines are now drawn. The Government has 109 MPs of its own. It has the support of the lone parliamentarian of the hardline Sihala Urumaya, taking its strength to 110 in the 225- member parliament.

On the other side, besides the 88 UNP MPs, there are nine Tamil MPs of the TULF, TELO and ACTC who will vote against the motion, as they have always done.

But in order to defeat the motion, the Opposition needs 14 more MPs on its side. Mr. Ravi Karuanayake, a UNP parliamentarian, said his party had received assurance from the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) that their 10 MPs would support it.

Like the Tamil parties, the JVP has also always voted against the Emergency, describing its provisions as draconian and anti- people. But this time it does not seem to have made up its mind yet.

Even if the JVP votes against the Emergency, the Opposition is still four short of the number required to defeat the Government.

The UNP hopes it can get the support of the seven SLMC members who walked out from the PA coalition. But their leader, Mr. Rauff Hakeem, has given no indication of which way he will finally go.

With the motion needing only a simple majority of members present and voting, it is enough for the Government if the six MPs simply do not return from their pilgrimage.

But if the UNP is to defeat the Government this Friday, assuming it has the JVP on its side, it needs to ensure that at least four of the seven SLMC members complete their religious obligations and return before Friday.

The UNP's decision might have been influenced by its Tamil allies on the no-confidence motion.

Had the UNP decided to abstain on the Emergency vote, it would have become difficult for the TULF, TELO and ACTC to support the UNP on the no-trust vote.

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