Iran, Turkey to have say in Afghanistan

By Kesava Menon

MANAMA (BAHRAIN), OCT. 22. If a post-Taliban situation develops in Afghanistan the U.S. administration will perhaps have the biggest say not least because it will have to provide much of the funding for the re-building of that country. But the West Asian states of Iran and Turkey are among the others who will influence the outcome. Better still, from India's point of view, Iran and Turkey will blunt Pakistan's efforts to have its way.

The U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, Mr. Richard Armitage, in his interview to The Hindu on Sunday, appeared to present a magnanimous administration view when he said that they would consider the view of states like Iran though they might not eventually buy those opinions altogether.

This promise of magnanimity will not please the Iranians who are already cautious about the long-term designs that the U.S. has in respect of Afghanistan. The Iranians have seen the U.S. try to bypass them on the western flank in the race for Central Asian and Caspian Sea oil. Now they fear, Washington could try to out- flank them on the east as well once the post- Taliban situation in Afghanistan opens up new possibilities.

Besides the concerns about Washington's long-term intentions, the Iranians have another reason to be miffed at Mr. Armitage's promise. They would feel, and with good reason, that they do not need U.S. permission to be in the game. Iran is already in the game and from the battle-front reports, it would appear that their ace-in-the-hole Commander Ismail Khan is the one making the most progress in gaining territory. Iran also has multiple-layer ties not only with the Sunni Tajiks of the Northern Alliance but also with the Shias and the Ismailis.

Most importantly, Iran never lost track of the fact that it is not possible to have stability in Afghanistan or any sort of friendly relations with that country without factoring in the Pakhtoons. Iran kept this factor in mind even at the time when the Taliban was sweeping through Afghanistan and it appeared that Shia Iran had lost out completely to Pakistan because of the latter's apparent monopoly over the Sunni Pakhtoons. The best evidence of Iran's strategic overview is provided by the fact that Mr. Gulbuddin Hekmetyar - the man who launched bloody attacks on Afghan Shias during the 1992-96 period - has been given shelter in Iran.

The Durrani Pakhtoons who have controlled Afghanistan's destiny since the time of Ahmed Shah Abdali, populate the part of the country near Iran. If the Taliban control begins to loosen, Iran could well be very active on this front as well.

No one can make any confident prediction in respect of Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostam. The Uzbek commander has changed sides so many times and then again that it can be said he belongs to the last person who put money into his pocket. On current standing, Turkey is that particular entity since Gen. Dostam had been living there since the topsy turvey crisis in Mazar-e-Sharif three or four years ago.

But Gen. Dostam's Jawzjani forces had always consisted of a whole bunch of militias, small and big, collected together and it is probable that Turkey now has several layers of influence over the Turkic-speaking Uzbeks.

As far as pipe-line politics is concerned, Turkey wants them to head due west, while Iran would try to make them head south-west. In the process, Pakistan, which would like those pipe-lines to head south-eastwards, could find itself playing political buchkazi with two brothers of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference.

The U.S., the umpire in this game, might be winking at Pakistan right now but Turkey is a more valuable and reliable partner for Washington. The winning of Iran's affections is a prize for which the U.S. is willing to pay.

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Section  : International
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