Australian poll may throw up a surprise

By Amit Baruah

SINGAPORE, NOV. 2. There is a tough electoral contest going on in Australia. A new opinion poll gives the edge to the Opposition Labour party but the advantage remains marginal and the ruling Liberal-National party coalition is not far behind.

According to the Bulletin-Morgan poll, primary support for Labour stood at 42.5 per cent while the Liberals were not far behind at 40.5 per cent. The poll was based on a sample of 936 electors. At the beginning of the campaign, it appeared that riding high on its anti-refugee campaign, the ruling coalition would sweep the November 10 elections. The ``tough'' posture demonstrated by the Prime Minister, Mr. John Howard, and his associates, it appeared, was enough to return them back to power.

But, as the campaign progressed, the Labour leader, Mr. Kim Beazley, clawed his way back. Mr. Beazley has managed to put the focus back on the general sales tax (GST), education and other bread and butter issues.

Labour has attacked the ruling coalition for imposing an across- the-board GST and has promised to remove it from selected essential items. Clearly, the poll, which appeared to have been won by the ruling coalition on what may broadly be termed a ``keep them (refugees) out'' policy, has taken a different turn. While supporting the Liberal coalition, Labour has been stressing that there is a need for a dialogue with countries like Indonesia - the final staging post from where hundreds of refugees are trying to land in Australia. However, barring the need for dialogue, there is not much difference between the Labour and Liberal positions on the refugee issue.

As the rivals slug it out at home, it is evident that Australia's international standing on the refugee issue has taken a beating. Indonesia has refused to talk to Australia and the Indonesian Foreign Minister, Mr. Hasan Wirayuda, has made some critical remarks on the approach taken by Canberra. The Indonesian President, Ms. Megawati Sukarnoputri, who chose not to meet Mr. Howard on the sidelines of the recent APEC meeting in Shanghai, did not return the Australian Prime Minister's calls in late August.

Newspaper reports have pointed out that Australian diplomats based in Jakarta have been met with a stony silence when they tried to get a response on the refugee issue. Australia and Australian parties run a sophisticated media campaign. The press is vibrant - all kinds of views are expressed and the leaders know how to use different media for effect. Interestingly, the Labour party was critical of Mr. Howard for going to Shanghai when there was much happening back home. But, according to Australian analysts, it was not so much as the going, but the publicity that Mr. Howard would get (and got) that disturbed Labour.

Finally, the Australian Prime Minister did get the much-coveted coverage. If one newspaper report is to be believed, the U.S. President, Mr. George W.Bush, made it a point to walk up to Mr. Howard during an APEC photo opportunity, and give the Prime Minister some pretty ``helpful'' coverage. As polling day approaches, the campaigning is likely to get tougher still. With the parties engaged in a close race, the leader with the better stamina for the campaign may be able to form the Government in Canberra. It remains to be seen whether a Prime Minister of five years is able to retain his job or a first-timer turns the tables on him.

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Section  : International
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