Caught in the quicksand

B. Muralidhar Reddy

``NEVER IN the field of human conflict have so many experts of the highest renown been so thoroughly wrong. Never have so many old warhorses of right and left been so embarrassingly trounced,'' wrote Mr. Polly Tonybee of The Guardian (U.K.) after the unexpected and dramatic march of the Northern Alliance forces into Kabul.

It would not be an exaggeration to suggest that no one is more shell-shocked over the turn of events in Afghanistan than the military Government in Pakistan. Presumably, not even the Taliban! It is assumed that the militia knew what it did and why it chose to run. But the Musharraf Government is literally gasping for breath.

The rapid change in the course of events in Afghanistan could not have come at a more inopportune time for the Pakistan President, Gen. Pervez Musharraf. The Taliban was deserting the historic city of Kabul a few hours after Gen. Musharraf took off from New York where he had basked in the glory of all the attention and importance he received.

For the first time since he took over the reigns (October 12, 1999) in a bloodless coup, the General got the kind of reception that he could not dream of wherever he went. He was the `star' at the United Nations General Assembly session, with leaders from the western block falling over each other to congratulate him for his ``bold and courageous'' decision to join the U.S.-led alliance against the Taliban.

The U.S. President, Mr. George W. Bush, even hosted a special dinner in his honour and virtually endorsed the Pakistan stand on Kashmir. The joint statement at the end of their two-hour talks specifically referred to the Kashmir problem and talked about the need for resumption of dialogue between India and Pakistan. What must have pleased the General more than anything else is not the call to both Islamabad and New Delhi to sit across the table to resolve the Kashmir tangle, but the emphasis on the need for resolution of the issue in accordance ``with the wishes of the people of Kashmir.''

The much-publicised stopovers in Iran and Turkey and brief visits to the capitals of the U.K. and France were a bonus. There were plenty of economic goodies too from the U.S. The $ one billion plus special package for Pakistan and the promise of revival of defence ties to the pre- sanction era was all heady stuff. In concrete terms all this may mean nothing, but it was more than sufficient for Gen. Musharraf to silence his critics back home.

But alas something else was brewing nearer home. The war in Afghanistan had taken the most unexpected twist and the worst apprehensions of Islamabad were coming true. The Northern Alliance, a force most detested by Pakistan, was effortlessly moving into Kabul. It is indeed ironical. Without firing a single shot the Alliance had taken over.

It is not so much the fall of the Taliban but the capture of Kabul by the Northern Alliance that has upset all calculations of Pakistan. What has complicated matters for Islamabad is the fact that the U.S.-led military alliance gifted Kabul on a platter to the opposition forces. The development has serious implications on the foreign policy and defence of Pakistan.

In simple words, the march of the Alliance into Kabul has knocked the bottom out of the two-and-half-decade foreign policy formulation of Pakistan. A Pashtun-dominated regime in Kabul was considered the best bet by Pakistan to safeguard its strategic interests in the region. Before September 11, the military Government openly acknowledged that the Taliban rule in Afghanistan lent a ``strategic depth'' to its foreign policy.

So, instead of the expected bouquets, it was brickbats that greeted the General on his return from New York. The Chairman of the Alliance for Restoration of Democracy, Mr. Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan, sarcastically congratulated Gen. Musharraf for his ``success'' in the installation of the Alliance with the help of the U.S. forces.

The Council for Defence of Afghanistan, an umbrella outfit of pro-Taliban and religious organisations, did not lose the opportunity to remind Gen. Musharraf about the ``grand designs of America.'' Questions have begun to be tossed in the media columns by military experts and commentators on the wisdom of the Afghan policy of the Government.

There was clearly a sense of panic in the military establishment and the Foreign Office. Though the establishment did not articulate the sentiments in so many words, there was a clear sense of ``betrayal'' by Washington. Though unstated, Islamabad seems to believe that even if Washington did not exactly bless the Alliance, it certainly looked the other way.

All Pakistan could do to contain the damage was to make frantic appeals to the U.N. and the U.S. to work on a political strategy to put in place an alternative political set-up in Kabul. The buzzword is a ``broad-based and multi-ethnic'' stopgap government acceptable to all Afghans and friendly to all its neighbours.

Thanks to the sudden and dramatic developments in the last few days, Pakistan is not only saddled with a ``hostile'' setupin Kabul but has also lost its new status as a frontline state in the war against terrorism. Though the U.S. and its allies are repeatedly reassuring Pakistan that it would not be abandoned this time there are serious doubts here about how they would actually behave given the changed scenario.

Gen. Musharraf would have to reckon with the angry Taliban across the border and pro-Taliban elements within Pakistan. All indications are that the Taliban may be down but certainly not out. Wil it launch the much-threatened guerilla warfare? Could Pakistan escape the consequences? There are questions and more questions.

There is little doubt that Gen. Musharraf could face new problems on the domestic front unless the U.N. (U.S.?) delivers on its promise to ensure that Kabul is ruled by a genuine grouping of forces representative of all ethnic entities in Afghanistan. Pending the evolution of such a scenario, the best bet would be to de-militarise Kabul and place it under the disposal of a multi-national, preferably Muslim, force.

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