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Will they sort it out?

EVERY WAR, or the threat of it, is an opportunity for adversarial nations to rethink the premises that govern their bilateral relations. As India and Pakistan stare down the abyss of nuclear confrontation, there may be a historic opportunity at hand to move decisively towards a final resolution of the long-standing dispute over Jammu and Kashmir.

If the international community succeeds in persuading the Pakistan President, Pervez Musharraf, to discard the instrument of cross-border terrorism with which Islamabad has bled India for nearly two decades, the confrontation could be de- escalated. And if Pakistan follows up with actions on the ground to curb terrorist activity on its soil, India must be ready to launch a serious political process that will explore an early and final solution to the Kashmir dispute.

There is a deep suspicion within Pakistan that if it puts the gun - pointed at India's head - down, New Delhi will have little incentive to negotiate purposefully on Kashmir. This view does have some sympathy within the international community, despite the current pressures on Pakistan to stop cross-border terrorism.

India, which in the last few weeks has displayed uncharacteristic ability to indulge in nuclear brinkmanship and coercive diplomacy against Pakistan, must match it with a bold political vision to initiate a peace process with Pakistan, at the heart of which is the resolution of the Kashmir dispute. There is no doubt that India has deliberately escalated the confrontation with Pakistan in the last few weeks in pursuit of its demand for an end to cross-border terrorism. For, the threshold of India's tolerance to Pakistan's proxy war was breached on December 13. Having upped the military ante to the highest level in three decades, India must also be ready to seize the moment that could emerge in the coming days for peace.

Not since 1971 have the Indian armed forces been mobilised to the extent they have been in the last few weeks. And unlike in 1971, India has the luxury of moving a substantial number of troops from the Eastern front to the West. In 1971, Pakistan was a still a reality in the east. And the relations with China were tense. But today, India has mobilised the maximum possible numbers of troops for what could be a decisive confrontation with Pakistan.

Unlike in the winter of 1987, when the large-scale `Brass Tacks' exercises initiated by the Army appeared to spin out of control towards a military confrontation with Pakistan, the present troop mobilisation, as the Army Chief, S. Padmanabhan, said on Friday, is not a military exercise. It is about preparing to go to war as a conscious political choice.

In May 1990 too, there was military tension between India and Pakistan and the exchange of hot words. But it would have been a skirmish compared to what could happen this time around.

If diplomacy fails and a war does occur, the prospects for which are not entirely nil, the conflict will be much larger than the one witnessed in Kargil during the summer of 1999. India had successfully vacated the Pakistani aggression across the Line of Control in the Kargil sector through a confrontation that was limited to a small space. This time it could be a full-scale war that could take place not just on the Line of Control in Kashmir but the entire international border stretching from Kashmir to Gujarat.

The nuclear shadow now looms much larger than in the Kargil war. The fear of escalation to the nuclear level made India exercise great restraint in military operations limited to its side of the LoC. Despite considerable pressures, India was determined not to cross the LoC and widen the war. But this time, India is deliberately taking the risk of a full scale war with Pakistan to achieve its objective of an end to cross-border terrorism.

The real possibility of a nuclear exchange has given the present confrontation an unprecedented edge as well as the potential for an enduring peace between the two arch rivals. The nuclear factor coupled with the international concerns about terrorism have made the current crisis between India and Pakistan a unique opportunity to resolve the long-standing dispute over Jammu and Kashmir.

The danger of a nuclear war has forced the international community to become engaged with the problems between India and Pakistan as never before. In 1987, 1990, and 1999 there was indeed international diplomatic intervention to cool the tensions between the two sides. But this time, as the prospects of a nuclear war loom large, the engagement of the international community has been one of the most intensive the subcontinent has ever seen.

That this escalation between India and Pakistan has taken place amidst the American war against terrorism in Afghanistan has contributed to the basic transformation of the context of the international involvement in the subcontinent by altering the terms of the debate in India's favour.

The dramatic terrorist attacks on Washington and New York on September 11 have forced the world to accept the Indian concerns on terrorism. The United States could not but see the parallels between September 11 and December 13 and demand that Pakistan crack down hard on all sources of terrorism on its soil, not just those relating to Afghanistan where America's principal interest was seen as lying.

Despite the fact that Islamabad has been an ally in its war in Afghanistan, the U.S. has applied unremitting and unprecedented pressure on Pakistan to change a fundamental feature of its recent policy towards India - the support for cross-border terrorism.

As a result, Pakistan finds itself in quandary that even its most paranoiac military planners could not have thought of. Pakistan's quest for strategic depth in Afghanistan has ended in an unexpected problem on two fronts. The U.S. military is operating on Pakistan's Western borders and India has mobilised a massive military force on its Eastern. And, Washington and New Delhi are demanding that Pakistan shut down the business of jehad.

If this pressure begins to work, and it indeed might, New Delhi should be prepared to quickly shift gears from nuclear brinkmanship to political statesmanship. If Gen. Musharraf makes it clear that he is changing course on Kashmir and follows up with actions on the ground, India must be ready to begin the diplomatic and military de-escalation of the crisis.

India must demonstrate that it has no desire to pocket Pakistani concessions and turn its back on Kashmir. If Pakistan has to learn from the current crisis that cross-border terrorism is too risky a strategy between nuclear neighbours, India will have to recognise that the problem in Kashmir cannot be made to disappear by just ignoring it.

If Gen. Musharraf does put the gun down, India needs to recast its own approach to Kashmir - by easing the military pressure within the State, renewing the offer of a dialogue with the indigenous militant groups who are ready to give up violence, and initiating a genuine peace process with Pakistan.

The Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, has proclaimed his desire to ``get off the beaten track'' in exploring a solution to the Kashmir dispute. If Gen. Musharraf heads in the right direction, Mr. Vajpayee must make good his own words. The Kashmir question may now be ripe for a resolution. The present conjunction of circumstances is a rare one and Mr. Vajpayee must grasp it.

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