Opinion
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News Analysis
Eyeing the future
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With no party expected to get a majority, the calculations in Uttar Pradesh have centred around gaining maximum bargaining power at the time of Government formation, writes J. P. Shukla.
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AS THE election process has been set in motion, political players in Uttar Pradesh have come face to face with the first problem - selection of candidates and allies. The Bahujan Samaj Party is the only major party to have completed candidate selection. The Samajwadi Party has declared nearly 320 names. Others are still finalising their lists. And only the BSP and the Congress(I) have announced that they will go it alone.
Seat adjustment among coalition partners has been a tricky affair. Being part of a coalition does not mean becoming generous. And for the BJP, which had been forced to make all kinds of compromises to remain in power during the last five years, the problem has been more pronounced.
With no party expected to gain a majority, the calculations have centred on gaining maximum bargaining power at the time of Government formation. A pre-poll ally could join the opposite camp to seek power. A weak ally could, therefore, be more reliable and should be preferred, goes the reasoning. The intense bargaining has taken the BJP-led alliance to the verge of collapse. Some of the Ministers from non-BJP parties have been frantically looking for alternatives as they feel they may be disappointed by the larger partner at the end. The BJP is likely to announce its list of candidates by January 16, when the process of filing nominations would already have started. By then it may be too late for these people to find an alternative.
Constituents of the ruling alliance have been regularly pleading their case with the BJP leaders, including the Chief Minister, Rajnath Singh, and the State BJP president, Kalraj Mishra. The pleadings apparently did not have the desired result.
For their part, the BJP leaders have said the party would contest the elections together with its allies and that sharing of seats would pose no problem. The allies, however, are not reassured as the ground realities present quite a different picture. Wary of the behaviour of some of the allies, the BJP wants to reduce their bargaining power.
Of a total of 403 Assembly constituencies, the BJP wants to contest 325. That leaves only 78 seats for its allies. Satisfying all of them is considered an uphill task.
The BJP's allies are of various hues. They are mainly defectors from the Congress(I) and the BSP. There are minor groups and independents also. Ajit Singh and his Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) were the latest addition. The BJP has to come to an understanding with all these groups - the Loktantrik Congress Party formed by former Congressmen, the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) of the Union Minister, Ram Vilas Paswan, to which a major faction of the former BSP members have shifted, the Kisan Mazdoor Bahujan Party representing another faction of former BSP MLAs, the Janata Dal (United) of the Union Minister, Sharad Yadav, besides the RLD and groups of independents. There is also the Samata Party of George Fernandes and the newly formed Shakti Dal of the Union Minister, Maneka Gandhi. Ms. Gandhi has expressed her intention to contest a number of seats in the Terai areas of Lakhimpur Kheri and Pilibhit districts.
Ajit Singh had initially demanded 65 seats but has since brought the number down to 45. The BJP is said to be willing to offer him 35.
Other political allies of the BJP have a feeling that they are not taken seriously. They have been disappointed but do not have the courage to revolt, as this may end only in a loss of their ministerial status.
The Kisan Mazdoor Bahujan Party has submitted a list of 34 candidates for the consideration of the BJP leaders. The party has indicated it will contest on its own symbol. The BJP has given no indication of the number of seats it is willing to allot but it will undoubtedly be far less than what has been demanded.
The real concern of the BJP comes from Ajit Singh and Maneka Gandhi; it might be ultimately forced to accommodate their demands at its own cost.
The People's Front has also failed to solve the issue easily. The SP leader, Mulayam Singh Yadav, mainly responsible for running the People's Front in Uttar Pradesh, unilaterally released a list of 300 candidates. The leaders of the CPI and the CPI(M) felt humiliated and have called their own meetings to discuss the issue. The two communist parties had sent the lists of constituencies of their choice. Mr. Yadav, however, went ahead and announced his party list. Against this, selection of candidates for the Congress(I) is only an internal problem, but no less tricky. There were nearly 5,000 candidates for the party ticket. Various groups are lobbying to accommodate their own favourites in the list expected to be released by January 16.
All debate over cleansing politics and observing norms in the selection of candidates have been thrown to the winds in this business of seat-sharing. Candidates rejected by one party for their criminal background have been accepted as ``valuable assets'' by rivals. The BJP's plea has been that it had decided not to field candidates with doubtful credentials, but it cannot do anything about its allies. Selection of candidates is ultimately a question of realpolitik.
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