Opinion
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News Analysis
Deciding the line-up
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A month away from the first `normal' polls in Punjab in two decades, the major parties are under pressure as they identify candidates and work out strategies, says Sarabjit Pandher.
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``ABOUT 15 days ago, it could have been easily said that the Akalis don't mind losing, while the Congress(I) is not keen enough to win the forthcoming Assembly polls in Punjab. But, from their latest posturing it appears that while the Congress(I) believes that it has already won, the Akalis seem to have accepted defeat, much before the match having begun,'' says the political commentator, Pramod Kumar. He predicts that the main rival camps, the Congress(I) and the ruling Akali-BJP alliance, could be in for some ``surprises''.
A month away from the first `normal' polls in Punjab in two decades, the major parties are under tremendous pressure as they identify candidates and work out strategies.
As there is neither any ``wave'' nor a State-centric issue gaining currency, all the parties are focussing on striking alliances with ``like minded'' or complementary political entities, to avoid a division of the vote banks.
Seeking another term, the ruling Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and the BJP have decided to maintain a status quo - the BJP would contest 23 of the 117 Assembly seats as in 1997.
After a literal seesaw the Congress(I) managed a pact with the CPI, which will put up candidates for 11 seats. Similarly, the Panthic Morcha, a conglomerate of rival Akali factions, has been involved in bargaining with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).
Also on are efforts through various quarters to effect a rapprochement between the septuagenarian Akali veterans, the present Chief Minister, Parkash Singh Badal, and the 25-time president of the Shiromani Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee (SGPC), G. S. Tohra. The different alliances have striking similarities. The tie-ups are mere electoral understandings. ``Winnability'' of the candidates has been the only criterion for the alliances. Electoral arithmetic appears to have taken precedence over ideological commitments.
Ironically, the bright prospects seen for the Congress(I) leaders have resulted in a heap of problems on its doorstep. Armed with poll projections, which have not been countered by the Akali-BJP combine, Congressmen have made a beeline for the party office. ``Congressmen have already started behaving as legislators. They have entered the post-election mode much too early,'' is an observation about the scene in the Congress(I) camp, where multitudes of lobbies are at work to get their ``legislators'' adjusted in the ``Cabinet''.
The CPI and the Congress(I), unlike the ruling combine, were quite clear in announcing that the alliance was till the elections and was open for a review in case they beat the ruling combination.
The Congress(I) and the CPI in reaching an understanding concentrated on individual interests over ideology. The parties have yet to articulate their opinion on important issues such as the challenges of implementing the WTO regime and the rise of communalism.The Akali-BJP alliance also seems to be shackled by continuing a pre-poll alliance, which paid rich dividends last time. On earlier occasions the Akalis and the BJP, previously Jan Sangh, formed post-election coalitions. Their current political positioning exposes the dilution in their ideologies as well.
While the Akali Dal is finding it difficult to reinforce the issues related to Sikh identity, the BJP is also in a quandary about appealing to the minority persecution complex of the Hindu community in the State. The natural corollary of the present fluid situation is the spread of confusion and misunderstanding among the support base of each political outfit. This is evident in the tensions among the workers of the alliance partners, especially over seat-sharing. This time both the Congress(I)-CPI combine and the ruling alliance may face problems at the grassroots where the partymen do not see eye-to-eye.
Another development is the emergence of what is being referred to as the ``spoilers' alliance''. The allies, the Panthic Morcha and the BSP, are clear about their aim.
The leaders of the Panthic Morcha do not mince words in stating that their aim is dethroning Mr. Badal, even at the risk of handing over power to the Congress(I) on a platter. The BSP is determined to spoil the chances of the Congress(I).
This has resulted in problems in seat-sharing in this alliance as well. This ``spoilers' alliance'' would be most pleased if the results reveal a hung Assembly. It will then hold the balance of power.
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