Opinion
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News Analysis
Presidents and problems
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Both in the Phillippines and Indonesia, the domestic and international challenges the Presidents face are closely interlinked, writes AMIT BARUAH.
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THE FIRST lady has completed a year on the job; the second has done six months. Both, however, are in political trouble. The Philippines President, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, and her Indonesian counterpart, Megawati Sukarnoputri, face formidable hurdles — both at home and abroad.
Ms. Macapagal-Arroyo has gone the whole hog in supporting the American camp; a joint U.S.-Filipino military exercise involving some 650 American troops is currently under way on the Philippine island of Basilan and is directed against the Abu Sayyaf terrorist outfit. Ms. Megawati, on the other hand, has been soft on Islamist militants. She has even begun to earn the ire of neighbouring countries for appearing to be reluctant to take action against what appears to be a regional militant network.
Both in the Philippines and Indonesia, the domestic and international challenges the Presidents face are closely inter-linked. After the Philippines closed down the U.S. base at Subic Bay years ago, Ms. Macapagal-Arroyo has gone overboard in her overtures to bring the Americans back to the Philippines and enlist them in the battle against the Abu Sayyaf.
Outside Afghanistan, the United States has committed the largest number of troops anywhere since September 11, 2001, to the Philippines in the battle against terrorism. While there has been much debate on the scope and nature of the "exercise", the mere fact of the American presence is significant. American troops, as per an "agreement", will not engage in combat operations against the Abu Sayyaf, but will shoot back if shot at. Clearly, a lot is left open to interpretation in such an arrangement. From Washington's point of view, the Abu Sayyaf continuing to hold an American couple hostage is provocation enough.
Many civil society groups in the Philippines, especially those on the Left, have been critical of Ms. Macapagal-Arroyo's decision to allow American troops. There have been demonstrations and protests on the streets and even dissent within her Government. There is considerable criticism against Ms. Macapagal-Arroyo for being unable to deal with the problems of poverty and unemployment while using public money to project herself abroad.
The Vice-President and Foreign Secretary, Teofisto Guingona, has spoken out publicly against the President permitting the joint military "exercise", scheduled to last for six months at present. "I will not be silent... I'll still look (out for) the interest of the nation. I did not sacrifice and will not compromise my principles," Mr. Guingona has said.
The Vice-President said he had full faith in the Philippine military to deal with the Abu Sayyaf problem and wanted the issue to be resolved. Mr. Guingona remains convinced that the extended stay of U.S. troops in the Philippines is unconstitutional.
For her part, Ms. Macapagal-Arroyo has been sharply critical of her deputy. "I do not want (Mr.) Guingona to air his reservations publicly... we already know he has reservations. It's not good to stress that because we belong to one team. It's all right for us to disagree as long as we disagree among ourselves and not in public."
The Philippines President has taken the lead in South-East Asia as far as building an "anti-terrorist" model is concerned. Her warm interactions with the U.S. President, George W.Bush, have been noted. It is evident that Ms. Macapagal-Arroyo has not been able to "sell" her U.S.-Philippine joint military "exercise" to the Filipino people. These reservations may cause long-term problems for the President.
In neighouring Indonesia, Ms. Megawati is still allowing Islamist militants a free rein. If Ms. Macapagal-Arroyo is doing too much, Ms. Megawati is simply doing too little. Both Malaysia and Singapore want key members of a regional militant network arrested by Jakarta; so far the Megawati Government has not gone beyond questioning one of the wanted persons. Her reluctance to take on the Islamists has undermined the President's secular credentials and placed a question mark on whether her Government will be able to enforce the rule of law. Ms. Megawati, who doesn't have a majority of her own in Parliament, also faces credibility questions in dealing with issues of corruption. The Golkar leader and House of Representatives chairman, Akbar Tandjung, has been named a suspect in a corruption case by the Attorney-General.
But the Indonesian President has stopped more active members of her Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) from supporting the formation of a parliamentary panel to probe Mr. Akbar's alleged acts of corruption.
The Attorney-General's office in Indonesia is notorious for being slow and allowing big fish to get off scot free. In such an environment, the President has been found wanting as far as dealing with the issue of corruption and nepotism is concerned. Ms. Megawati's decision to depute her husband-politician, Taufik Keimas, to China at the head of a business delegation, has also led to criticism from several quarters. The President has also kept the press at arm's length. This is particularly galling for a press used to excellent access from the former President, Abdurrahman Wahid. Ms. Megawati rarely deals with the press, the job is left to her lieutenants.
Both Ms. Megawati and Ms. Macapagal-Arroyo (in the Philippines) took power at times of crises for their respective countries.Though six months and a year may be considered short to evaluate their performance as leaders, the indicators warn of more troubles ahead. In the Philippines, there is persistent talk of "coups" — reports that are denied from time to time by the military as well as the political leadership. Such talk doesn't enhance the image of the Philippines as a stable polity.
Civil society in the Philippines and Indonesia have made their positions clear about the direction their leaders should take. Will Ms. Macapagal-Arroyo and Ms. Megawati take the cue?
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