The Hindu : After the polls

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Monday, Feb 25, 2002

Opinion

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After the polls

By K. K. Katyal

A setback in the Assembly polls cannot but dent the credibility of the NDA, its Government at the Centre and the Prime Minister.

THERE IS no originality about the question but, nonetheless, it is all-important — what will be the impact of the Assembly poll outcome on the Central Government, national politics and the polity? In attempting an answer, various factors — constitutional, political and common sense-related — have to be kept in mind. The issue is not that simple — while the constitutional dispensation is federal, political parties are unitary, both as regards their structure and functioning. One point could be made straightaway — the severe beating received by the BJP, with the prospect of ouster from power in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Uttaranchal, is a major blow to its credibility and that of the coalition headed by it at the Centre. However, it does not necessarily pose a threat to the survival of the Union Government. The Congress(I), the main Opposition at the Centre, has the satisfaction of re-emerging in Punjab and Uttaranchal, but it remains a rank outsider in U.P., which, in the final analysis, holds the key to power at the Centre.

There is no ambiguity about the strictly constitutional position — the changes in the political complexion of the State Governments do not affect the Centre. Likewise, any upset at the Centre does not have a ripple-effect in the States. That is mandated by the Constitution, there being clear demarcation in the powers and roles of the Centre and the States. Even when we used to have, for a brief while, simultaneous elections to the Lok Sabha and the Assemblies, there were instances of the electorate returning one party at the Centre, another in a State.

That the constitutional norms were not always followed in practice is a different matter. For instance, in 1977, when the Congress(I) was ousted from power at the Centre, for the first time, the new rulers, the Janata Party, lost no time in dismissing, in one stroke, nine State Governments. This was done on the specious plea that the rout of the Congress(I) at the Centre had called into question its legitimacy even in the States. Three years later, when the Congress(I) returned to power at the Centre, the compliment was returned in kind with the removal of an equal number of State Governments on an identical plea. Also, there were many instances of the Centre acting arbitrarily in removing the Governments in the States. As a matter of fact, the majority of the cases where the Centre took over the administration of the States in the last five decades or so were violative of the letter and spirit of the Constitution. In strict constitutional terms, the Central Government's legitimacy is not diminished because of the ascendancy to power of the Opposition parties in the States.

The Vajpayee Government, thus, does not face any threat to its survival because of the reduced popular support to the BJP, or any other constituent of the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Apart from the constitutional position, there are the considerations of realpolitik. The 22 groups, big and small, have a shared vested interest and are held together by the glue of power.

It is not a question of numbers, not even of legitimacy in the constitutional sense. A setback to the BJP in Uttar Pradesh or its partner, the Akali Dal, in Punjab, could not but cause a dent in the credibility of the NDA, its Government at the Centre and the Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee. He obviously sought to pre-empt his opponents when he asked the people not to treat the Assembly poll as a referendum on the NDA regime's performance. Mr. Vajpayee and the NDA are certain to be subjected to heavy attacks because of the poor showing in the States. The ruling combine will, thus, be on the defensive at a time when the Government's performance leaves much to be desired, especially in the economic field. George Fernandes will continue to be vulnerable to the assaults of the Opposition, which is not reconciled to his re-induction as Defence Minister. The poll outcome will, thus, compound the Government's difficulties.

What will it mean to the polity? Advance toward fragmentation. In Uttar Pradesh the political campaign from beginning to end focussed on divisions of caste, sub-castes and religion. This process received a fillip from the emergence of groups and parties seeking to thrive on narrow sectional appeals. The Samajwadi Party, for instance, leaned heavily on backward classes and the minorities, the BSP on Dalits. Not to be left behind, the Chief Minister, Rajnath Singh, took up the cause of the ``most backward'' sections, with a view to cutting into the support base of the S.P. and its supremo, Mulayam Singh Yadav. Whatever the election outcome, society — and the polity — stands badly fragmented. No one now talks of national integration — a worthy objective which once received the close attention of the Government and the people alike. The country's biggest State is moving inexorably towards social and political disintegration. And it may not be the only one. The political players responsible for it celebrate their victory.

The fragmented polity is certain to add to the problems in putting together — and operating — coalitions, from which there is no escape. Even in the absence of the yawning divisions, evident now, the job of evolving a participatory arrangement proved highly taxing, as shown by the experience of the last six years. First, the job of accommodating the diverse — even conflicting — claims of various constituents and, later, of reconciling their ideological divergences led to delays, even paralysis in the decision-taking process, affecting the quality of governance.

It is nobody's case that the national parties have some special rights and there is no place for regional groups. Both have to co-exist, there being the need for a correct balance (of course, not easy to define) between them. But just as over-centralisation is not good for the country's political health, an undue tilt towards regional groupings is not a happy development. In Punjab, the decline of the powerful regional force, the Akali Dal, is accompanied by the ascendancy of a national party, the Congress(I), but in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress(I) has been shown to possess a nominal appeal and the BJP suffered a setback, while the regional groups remain a reckonable factor. One only hopes that the Uttar Pradesh trends do not turn out to be contagious.

The campaign rhetoric, expectedly shrill, may pose difficulties in the way of the nascent moves for a broad alliance of non-BJP forces. Some time back, the meetings, at the social level, between two adversaries, Sonia Gandhi and Mulayam Singh Yadav, gave rise to hopes of a patch-up, with the promise of the reversal of the hard attitudes that had prevented the formation of a non-BJP Government in 1999. As was known, the bid for an alternative in 1999 collapsed because of Mr. Yadav's refusal to cast his party's lot with the Congress(I). As a result, the relationship between the two parties and their leaders was badly damaged and a deep sense of hurt was evident in both the camps. The hope that the old controversy may have been settled was dashed during the election campaign — Ms. Gandhi talked of Mr. Yadav's ``betrayal'' and he, in turn, charged her with seeking to monopolise power, on the strength of support from others. The old wounds were, thus, re-opened. Under the compulsion of the post-poll arithmetic and to keep the BJP out of power, those who had been working for a non-BJP front at the Centre are certain to get active now with an eye, immediately on Lucknow and later on New Delhi. It may not be an easy job — because of a basic contradiction between the Congress(I) and the S.P. The Congress(I) cannot hope to re-emerge as an all-India force, unless it captures Uttar Pradesh. And this State happens to be the stronghold of Mr. Yadav. The Uttar Pradesh election has served to emphasise this point. The repercussions of the Assembly results are bound to be far-reaching indeed.

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