Opinion - Editorials

A political signal in Sri Lanka?

THE LANDSLIDE VICTORY registered by the United National Party in Sri Lanka's latest local body elections has, in a sense, reinforced the political standing of the Prime Minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe, at this critical point in the island-republic's search for a settlement of its endemic ethnic crisis. For Mr. Wickremesinghe, who seems eager to opt for what is being described as a fast-track peace process at the national level, the updated people's verdict in the grassroots arena is certainly a reassuring signal. Yet, the bottom line in respect of local polls is that the people's verdict will have at least as much to do with micro-level issues as any national questions that might be of prime concern in the overall political discourse of the moment. Viewed in this perspective, the Prime Minister should temper his celebratory mood with a note of realism. On balance, his party's stunning success marks a virtual reaffirmation of his triumph in the parliamentary elections last December. More importantly, the new poll outcome is a political sequel to Mr. Wickremesinghe's decisive initiative for a truce and a settlement with the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Also relevant to the present situation is the fact that the peace process, involving Mr. Wickremesinghe and the LTTE, has served as the looming political backdrop, if not the really defining issue, during the campaign for the latest local body elections. In all, therefore, Mr. Wickremesinghe can rightly feel encouraged by the latest poll numbers. In fact, any setback to his party in this exercise in grassroots democracy would have most certainly been seen as a negative vote on his ongoing peace initiative despite the limited political scope of local-level polls.

It is against such public debate in a highly participatory democracy like Sri Lanka's that the emerging political trends in that country must now be evaluated. The Prime Minister's critics at home have been quick to point out that there is nothing wondrously important about a political outfit being able to win local polls soon after its success in parliamentary elections or a presidential contest. Another argument in focus now is that the voter turnout during the latest polls is not high enough to warrant any claims of a phenomenal mandate for the peace process. The objective reality, though, is that the Prime Minister can now hope to hold his own with a greater sense of political conviction than before as the President, Chandrika Kumaratunga, quizzes him about the finer aspects of his dealings with the LTTE in conjunction with Norway as the external facilitator.

Shorn of the niceties of the running confrontation between Ms. Kumaratunga as the executive President and Mr. Wickremesinghe as the proactive Prime Minister over the peace process, their tussle really is for the mystique of political authority as the country's sole leader. As Sri Lanka cannot afford a deeply divisive search for peace and a negotiated settlement of the basic ethnic conflict, the Prime Minister will do well to act in concert with the President without treating her as a diminished political force in the wake of these local elections. While Ms. Kumaratunga herself had valiantly tried to solve Sri Lanka's constitutional and ethnic riddles, the future of the current peace process is linked to factors that go beyond the cross-currents within the majoritarian spectrum of Sinhala politics. First, a measure of public opinion within the minority circle of Tamils will be known when the local polls, now postponed, are held in their areas of influence. The second factor of significance is the manner in which the U.S. has become supportive of Norway's facilitatory endeavour. Washington seems to be watching the LTTE closely lest it should exploit any perceived inconsistencies in the U.S. ``war on terror''.

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