Monday, Apr 15, 2002
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By Vaiju Naravane
While it is a foregone conclusion that the second round run-off will be a fight to the finish between the conservative President, Jacques Chirac, and his Socialist Prime Minister, Lionel Jospin, never has the first round appeared so wide open. There have never been so many candidates in a French Presidential election — 16 this time, representing shades of political opinion from the extreme left to the extreme right. There are at least four ecologists, the centre-left Noel Mamere and centre-right Corrine Lapage being the most prominent. They are calling for stricter anti-pollution laws, controls on nuclear waste, automobiles, genetically modified foods and a host of other measures, including a writing off of Third World debt. France's extreme right wing is present and flourishing, riding the crest of a popularity wave because of a record eight per cent increase in the crime rate and several highly visible attacks such as shootouts, acts of vandalism, armed robberies, prison escapes and assault against municipal officials, train and bus conductors. Jean Marie Le Pen, the now legendary leader of the extreme right wing, anti-foreigner National Front and his former deputy turned rival, Bruno Megret, are expected to notch up record scores. On the extreme left, several candidates, including Robert Hue, the leader of France's traditional communist party, the PCF, Arlette Laguiller of the Lutte Ouvriere (Worker's Struggle), contesting her fourth Presidential elections, and three others belonging to old-fashioned communist traditions, including Trotskyist are fighting for over 15 per cent of the vote. Arlette Laguiller, who has changed neither style nor substance since she entered politics over three decades ago, is leading this pack, tipped to win over 10 per cent of the vote. Candidates from the traditional right, include former Ministers, Alain Madelin, and Francois Bayrou, both attempting to pose a puny challenge to the master of political manoeuvring, Jacques Chirac, the uncontested leader of the right-wing pack. Somewhere between Mr. Chirac and Mr. Jospin is Jean Pierre Chevenement, the former Socialist Interior and Defence Minister who is now vacillating between right and left. Mr. Chevenement started out promisingly with support from those tired of seeing the same old faces dominating the political landscape. His republican rhetoric appeals to those disenchanted with European federalism as preached by the two leading candidates. The Socialist candidate, Mr. Jospin, after a promising start, has run into trouble. He has failed to send a clear message to his voters and lacks the warmth that characterises Mr. Chirac. Many see him as competent but heartless. Mr. Jospin has been badly hit by the spate of attacks against Jewish interests in France, presumably by members of the Arab community. Most centrist voters see him as being lax on crime and insecurity. The introduction of a 35-hour workweek now fails to evoke enthusiasm and voters see him as a dull plodder, not as an innovative man of ideas. The first round will undoubtedly be a protest vote. Few are blind to the fact that Mr. Chirac faces allegations of financial wrongdoing dating back to the time when he was Mayor of Paris from1974 to 1995. A satirical TV programme features a puppet called "supermenteur" (super liar). Dressed in a superman-like suit, supermenteur can lie his way out of any situation. In contrast, Mr. Jospin looks honest but drab. Being a loveable super liar is infinitely more desirable in the eyes of the voters to being honest but pedestrian. The first round vote is likely to see the scores of the leading candidates decline as compared to previous elections. "I would be surprised if any of the top candidates manages to get over 18 or 19 per cent of the vote," says commentator Pierre Luc Seguillon.
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