Opinion - News Analysis

Jitters in the BJP camp

By K.K.Katyal

NEW DELHI APRIL 24. It is the fear of the unpredictable that haunts the BJP now that the Lok Sabha Deputy speaker, Mr. P.M.Sayeed, has allowed a discussion on Gujarat under a rule that involves voting.

The BJP had no objection to a debate on Gujarat but was opposed to any arrangement that includes a head-count. Obviously, it was not sure about the stand to be taken by some of its allies and supporters, notably the Telugu Desam Party which provides the crucial backing from outside.

The Deputy Speaker allowed discussion under Rule 184 which provides for a vote. Even if adopted, it will not amount to a vote of no-confidence against the Government or its censure but will certainly mean a moral setback. There could be other implications as well _ it may serve to expose the cracks in the National Democratic Alliance, and, thus, tempt the Opposition to plan suitable strategies to exploit the revealed divisions.

The BJP takes comfort from the fact that the motion as admitted by the Chair does not exclusively focus on Gujarat and does not have any operative clause, like a plea for Central take-over of the State's administration, or for a change of guard in Gandhinagar. That is one side of the coin. The other side should be a cause for worry to the BJP. The motion reads: ``This House expresses its grave concern over the failure of the administration in ensuring the security of the minority community in various parts of the country, especially in Gujarat, and urges the Government to take effective steps to restore confidence of the minority communities and to protect them.'' Its scope is wider and, if adopted, it would be a severe damnation of the Vajpayee Government for its failure to protect the minorities all over the country. The diluted version has a sting in it.

As things stand, however, a vote is unlikely to go against the Government. The allies, including the Trinamool Congress, will stand by the BJP. The Telugu Desam Party may abstain, but its loss could be made good by support from the Bahujan Samaj Party and some others. Still the BJP's strategists feel uneasy because of the fear arising from the waywardness of politics in India _ in other words, the fear of last-minute desertion by some of the allies. There is no firm basis for it, but the BJP does feel nervous.

Memories of the past

The BJP's fears are strengthened by memories of the past, especially of the July 1979 episode, recalled in the parliamentary lobbies these days. On that occasion, an innocuous routine motion of no-confidence by the Leader of the Opposition, Y.B. Chavan of the Congress, sharpened the crisis within the ruling Janata Party.

It had an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha and could have easily defeated the motion, but divisive forces in the ruling establishment gathered momentum in no time and, as a result, the Morarji Desai Government resigned four days later.

Particular reference is made to the conduct of George Fernandes who, in his capacity as a Union Minister, stoutly defended the Government, claiming credit for its achievements, but resigned soon after.

The parallel between 1979 and the present case is not apt but the BJP does not feel fully re-assured.

The Janata Party then had been riven by sharp divisions and virtually split into two camps, in uneasy cohabitation as it were.

A little pressure from within was enough to bring the divisions out into the open. But now the BJP does not suffer from any such infirmity. In the second place, the challenge to the Government now comes in the form of a discussion and voting under Rule 184 and not a motion of no-confidence.

In fact, the Prime Minister has dared the Opposition to bring a resolution expressing want of confidence. And yet the Deputy Speaker's ruling has led to jitters in the BJP camp.

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