International

Iraq's position tricky before U.N. talks

By Kesava Menon

MANAMA (BAHRAIN) APRIL 28 . Iraq will have to play a careful diplomatic game in the coming weeks as it prepares for discussions with the United Nations on resuming weapons inspections.

While the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has acted as a buffer to the U.S. administration's itch to attack Iraq, this obstacle might not remain effective through the end of the year. Iraqi officials could hardly have failed to notice the recent New York Times report stating that the U.S. President, George W. Bush, is thinking of a massive attack by the beginning of next year.

Of late, Iraq has been increasingly conciliatory on the question of renewed weapons inspections. The Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister, Tariq Aziz, recently said Iraq would co-operate with an inspection effort if its friends could convince it that such an exercise was necessary.

At the beginning of March, an Iraqi delegation held discussions with the U.N. Secretary-General, Kofi Annan, on the question of renewed inspections; instead of giving clear assent, however, the Iraqis sought clarifications on a number of connected issues. Among these was whether the U.S.-imposed "no-fly zones" were legitimate under international law, whether U.S. plans for regime change in Iraq were legal, and questions pertaining to the details of inspection. While many of these questions were legitimate, and while other countries also should have need for such clarifications, the international assumption was that the Iraqis were stalling.

There remains an assumption that Iraq will stall again when its delegation meets with the Secretary-General. This time, however, Iraq is expected to agree to resume the inspections in principle, but will again haggle over their details. Iraq also cannot take for granted that the U.S. will hold back on its plans throughout the West Asian confrontation.

Hawks in the U.S. administration have reportedly begun to spin the theory that an attack on Iraq leading to a regime change would help to promote a final settlement of the West Asian dispute. There has also been speculation that the moderate regimes in the Arab world would silently welcome an attack on Iraq, even though they might protest publicly. Thought along these lines may not be wholly off the mark, despite the much-publicised reconciliation between Iraq and Kuwait at the Arab League summit in Beirut last month, which ended with a declaration that any attack on Iraq would be considered as an attack on the whole Arab world.

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