The Hindu : A thaw is nowhere in sight

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Monday, May 06, 2002

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A thaw is nowhere in sight

By K. K. Katyal

Resumption of an Indo-Pakistan dialogue is a daunting job, more so because Atal Behari Vajpayee and Pervez Musharraf are mired in domestic problems.

WE ARE again in a situation where it is difficult not to be pessimistic about the course of India-Pakistan relations in the near future. Only the tunnel is in sight, not its end. Resumption of an Indo-Pakistan dialogue is a daunting job, more so because the Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, and the Pakistani President, Pervez Musharraf, are mired in domestic problems. Because of these preoccupations, they are unable to pay adequate attention to bilateral matters. This would have been the case even if the political will had been there. In practice the requisite will, too, is conspicuous by its absence.

Think of the magnitude of the problems they face at home, their stakes in smooth satisfactory solutions, the threats to the survival of the set-up they preside over — think of all this and the reason for the lack of urgency for normalcy in the neighbourhood will be clear. The domestic problems do not look like easing in the months to come. Does it mean that the resolution of India-Pakistan issues will continue to have a low priority? That in a situation where the cost of the delay is heavy to both the sides.

First, Gen. Musharraf. His main concern has been to legitimise his rule, which had its genesis in the military coup in October 1999. Since then, he has been able to consolidate his hold but the problem of legitimacy remains — even though he converted himself from the Chief Executive to the President. Thanks to the events after September 11 last year, the pressure from the world community subsided. The West — the U.S. and others — does not find his rule as repugnant as earlier. But the pressure from within has increased, what with the people getting restive over the denial of their rights, the mainstream political parties stepping up their agitation for the restoration of democracy and, in the process, achieving unprecedented unity. The time-limit, set by the Supreme Court for the holding of elections — by October this year — is getting closer.

The General sought to circumvent the commitment made to the Court by holding a referendum — and securing 97 per cent "support" for his continuance at the helm for another five years — but the people are not impressed. As a matter of fact, it has had the opposite effect, and as the Dawn noted, "he becomes Pakistan's third serving army chief to claim to be elected head of state — a clear violation of the Constitution". With this the spotlight on the coming elections has intensified, with advance warnings by the political parties and the media against compromising the fairness, impartiality and transparency of the poll processes. Between now and October, the General will be engaged in a crucial struggle for survival. He would certainly make use of the Kashmir issue in the rhetoric of his campaign but that will be a far cry from a meaningful initiative for a solution of the problem.

The domestic preoccupations are equally pressing in the case of Mr. Vajpayee. The problems that dogged him in the last few months could only get serious. Any respite is out of the question. First Ayodhya and now Gujarat dealt heavy blows to him and to the coalition he heads. It exposed the brittle nature of the ruling alliance. The job of keeping the herd together, never easy in the last two years, is far more arduous now. The credibility of the Government is badly dented, even though there is no threat of survival as of now. Debilitated by the reverses, one after the other, the Government is in no mood to grapple with the Pakistan problem, intractable as it is.

Apart from this general problem there is a Kashmir-specific difficulty. New Delhi plans to keep up the pressure on Pakistan — through the build-up on the border and other non-military measures. Those who thought that the escalation, in the wake of the December 13 strike on Parliament House, was linked to the Uttar Pradesh elections were proved wrong. Even those who thought that a positive change in the ground reality — reduced infiltration and lower level of terrorist violence — could lead to relaxation have been proved wrong. Though the snow has melted and the Government is in a better position to make an assessment, the signals from the officialdom are far from reassuring. Escalation will continue — this is the message. Gen. Musharraf, according to the Government here, has not followed up the January 12 announcement of the anti-terrorism package with steps to curb infiltration and even the measures taken within the country have been diluted.

At the beginning of the year, the international community evinced considerable interest in the subcontinent — obviously because of the fear that the situation arising out of the military build-up on both sides of the border might get out of control. The U.S. President, George W. Bush, would ring up Mr. Vajpayee and Gen. Musharraf every other day, the U.S. Secretary of State, Colin Powell, visited the two capitals more than once and used the joint press conferences with the leaders of the two sides to throw the U.S. weight on the side of peace. India heard similar exhortations from other leaders — Vladimir Putin from Moscow and Jacques Chirac from Paris. The Asian neighbours, too, conveyed their concerns. That high-pitch interest is no longer there. Perhaps it is because of the fatigue factor, perhaps because the attention of the major powers has been diverted to other more pressing crises such as the developments in West Asia.

The subcontinent, however, is uppermost in the minds of top U.S. policy-makers. As was evident from a recent interview to The Hindu by the U.S. National Security Adviser, Condoleezza Rice, the Bush administration had been in touch with New Delhi and Islamabad to emphasise the importance of guarding against a conflict — it wanted Pakistan to address India's legitimate concern over cross-border terrorism and urged India to give diplomacy the primacy in its actions and to take steps for the resumption of dialogue. The U.S. views, as expressed in the interview, have been received well, by and large, in India and Pakistan. But, it is one thing for the Governments to react positively to suggestions from well-meaning quarters, and quite another to take concrete, practical steps.

In the midst of the all-pervading pessimism, some faint stirrings, represented by the meeting in Dubai of the leaders from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), Hurriyat representatives from Srinagar and overseas Kashmiris from the U.S., Canada and the U.K. generated considerable interest — with some sections pinning hopes on this initiative for a "new beginning". The fact that a section of the Hizb-ul-Mujahideen came out with what amounted to a plea for a ceasefire, created the impression that a conscious, well thought-out move on the Kashmir stalemate (relating both to the external and internal aspect) was on. Some firm evidence is needed to show that this, indeed, is the case. There was intense speculation whether the Dubai meetings had the informal blessings of the two Governments. The participation in it of Sardar Qayyum, a former PoK "president", and an appointee of Gen. Musharraf on the Kashmir committee set up by him, was cited in support of the theory of Islamabad's patronage. Others found similar evidence of New Delhi's interest. One would wish these initiatives well but, unfortunately, the controversies that followed obscured the positive intentions of the sponsors.

In case these moves make headway, the coming elections in Jammu and Kashmir could prove useful for a positive culmination. At the movement, however, one has to keep one's fingers crossed.

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