The Hindu : 'Nuclear war will claim 12 million lives'

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Tuesday, May 28, 2002

International

International

'Nuclear war will claim 12 million lives'

By Sridhar Krishnaswami

WASHINGTON MAY 27 . For all the talk in South Asia and elsewhere of a potential nuclear showdown between India and Pakistan, the American Intelligence has estimated that a nuclear exchange between the two countries will result in the "immediate death" of up to 12 million people.

According to The New York Times, the Pentagon has estimated that even a "more limited'' nuclear exchange would have "cataclysmic'' results and leave the American military with little choice than to go and help the victims and "clean up."

"The humanitarian crisis that would result would be so great that every medical facility in the Middle East and Southwest Asia would be quickly overwhelmed. The American military would have no choice but go in and help with the victims and to clean up,'' an unnamed Defence Department Official was quoted as saying.

The Pentagon's observations were based on the analysis of the Indian and Pakistani nuclear capability, which also factored in the current weather conditions. The casualty figure was arrived at on the basis of possible targets and a perception that most, not all, of the nuclear weapons would be used.

The death toll would be nine million to 12 million; and injuries in the neighbourhood, between two million and seven million. "But those are just the immediate casualties,'' a Defence Department official told the paper. The estimate apparently did not include "subsequent deaths'' from urban firestorms, long-term radiation or disease and starvation that are expected to follow.

The Intelligence estimate also assumed that the nuclear weapons would explode on the ground, not air; and as such the "ground bursts'' would entail tons of soil to be dug up with the poisonous radioactive debris spread over a large area.

The assessment of the Indian and Pakistani arsenal and their capability are classified, but the officials of the Pentagon and Bush administration felt that Pakistan had a "couple of dozen'' of nuclear warheads and India "several dozen''; and that while Pakistan's warheads were comparable to that of the Hiroshima bomb and deliverable by jets or missile, the Indian warheads were more varied and dependent on the delivery system.

The report said that the officials who discussed the Intelligence assessment wanted to counter the false impression that India and Pakistan were simply "going through a well-rehearsed dance of threat and counter-threat.''

A senior administration official said, "we just don't know where the `red lines' are any more,'' adding that the U.S. President, George Bush, and his advisers were not sure if India and Pakistan knew it either.

Senior members of the administration have also been talking of another factor — the presence of the American forces in Pakistan.

"We have U.S. forces, U.S. troops in Pakistan, in addition to American citizens and our diplomatic presence, and I hope both sides are taking this into account as they make their different calculations about what might happen in the future,'' the U.S. Secretary of State, Colin Powell, said on Sunday.

Gen. Powell also warned the two countries not to use the presence of the American troops in any contingency planning.

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