The Hindu : Straw's grim assessment causes alarm

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Sunday, Jun 02, 2002

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International

Straw's grim assessment causes alarm

By Hasan Suroor

LONDON JUNE 1. The talk of a ``very real'' possibility of an India-Pakistan war, possibly leading to a nuclear exchange, has gained ground here after the British Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw reportedly gave a grim assessment of the mood in the two countries, following his visit to the region.

The British Government's decision to advise its citizens in India, including its non-essential diplomatic staff, to ``consider'' returning home was prompted by Mr. Straw's perception that the situation was ``very dangerous'' even though a war was not inevitable. Mr. Straw, who spoke to the U.S. Secretary of State, Colin Powell on Friday, was reported to be of the view that neither side quite grasped the danger of a military conflict, escalating into a nuclear confrontation.

``Mr. Straw was said to have the feeling that neither was thinking logically or with commonsense,'' The Times said, quoting diplomatic and defence sources. Neither the Pakistani President, Pervez Musharraf nor the Indian Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee ``appeared capable of visualising the scale of the disaster that would overwhelm their countries if nuclear weapons were used'', it said.

Experts warned that the danger of a miscalculation by either side was heightened by the fact that neither had a concept of each other's ``red lines'' — the nuclear threshold; and that, unlike the U.S. and the Soviet Union at the height of the cold war, India and Pakistan had no ``hotline'' to avert a nuclear accident. The sheer lack of communication was fraught with risks, they said.

The British media was dominated by quotes from unnamed diplomatic and military sources pouring scorn over Indian and Pakistani leaders and warning of ``doomsday'' scenarios. ``The situation is extraordinarily serious. It could rapidly lead to nuclear war,'' a well-placed source told

The Guardian adding that leaders in both India and Pakistan would find it ``very difficult for domestic political reasons to back down''. The situation in the region, it was stated, had ``markedly deteriorated'' in the past week, despite intense diplomatic pressure on both countries to de-escalate.

Commentators noted that while Pakistan was willing to have a dialogue, Mr. Vajpayee had rejected the Russian proposal for a face-to-face meeting with President Musharraf. The sympathy for India's case on cross-border terrorism was combined with a criticism for what one commentator called its ``obduracy'', attributing it to ``Hindu nationalist hardliners''. The BBC and other TV channels showed the effect of Indian shelling on the Pakistani side with villagers fleeing their homes, and mourning those killed in the firing.

Meanwhile, Britain was reported to have proposed supplying a ``helicopter monitoring force'' to patrol the Line of Control. This was disclosed by Pakistan's envoy to the United Nations, Munir Akram who, according to a report in The Independent, said that Mr. Straw during his talks in Islamabad cited a British study that a 300-strong helicopter force might be sufficient to patrol the LOC. Mr. Akram said the proposals would be acceptable to Pakistan, if India also agreed.

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