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U.S., Turkey discuss Iraq

By Atul Aneja

MANAMA (BAHRAIN) JULY 16 . Turkey and the United States today discussed the nuts and bolts of possible military strikes against Iraq and its likely implications on the region. The visiting U.S. Deputy Defence Secretary, Paul Wolfowitz, the senior-most official from Washington to have visited Turkey after its recent political crisis — held detailed discussions with the countrys military top brass.

These talks assume importance in the light of the traditional moderating role that Turkish Generals have played during times when a political crisis has threatened Turkeys vital interests. Diplomatic sources, however, said that the focus of Mr. Wolfowitzs discussions was Iraq. Turkey, during the Gulf war was the springboard of U.S. air strikes against Iraq, it neighbour. It will continue to play a key military role in case another conflict with Baghdad erupts in the coming months.

Reliance on Turkey, a NATO member may become all the more crucial, in case Saudi Arabia and some of Iraqs other neighbours are not whole-hearted in their support for military strikes. The U.S. also wants stability in Turkey to project Ankara as a model moderate Muslim State before the Islamic world. . In fact, Turkey is heading a U.N. Assistance force that is meant to maintain law and order in Kabul. Mr. Wolfowitz incidentally has also visited Afghanistan during his visit to the region.

Despite its importance, Turkey too faces serious difficulties, in case of an involvement in a war against Iraq. The Kurdish rebels that it has been battling earlier for a number of years are its prime concern. In fact, Turkey may have to face hard choices in case of a war. For instance, ethnic Kurds who reside along the Iraq-Turkey border arc, but are mainly concentrated in the safe havens created on the Iraqi side under an Anglo-American military initiative may flee in hordes in case a war begins. Panic is likely to set in soon as the Kurds have not forgotten the severe Iraqi repression that was mounted against them in the early nineties. That would mean a flood of refugees that an economically challenged Turkey might find hard to absorb. A clear-cut victory may also not go entirely in Turkeys favour. . A defeat of Iraqi President, Saddam Hussein may result in the creation of a Kurdish State in the safe haven areas of Iraq.

In that case the new state can become the springboard for a new offensive by Turkish minority Kurds against Ankara.

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