The Hindu : Bad blood

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Wednesday, Jul 31, 2002

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

Bad blood

By Sudhanshu Ranade

There seems to be a general agreement about two things. That the Gujarat Chief Minister, Narendra Modi, will win the elections if they are held in the near future. And that his doing so will represent a victory for him in particular and for Hindutva hardliners in general.

There are serious differences within the BJP family in Gujarat. Dissent has continued even after Shankarsinh Waghela left to team up with the Congress a few years ago. But Mr. Modi might still come out on top if Mr. Waghela, now heading the Gujarat Pradesh Congress Committee, adds fuel to the flames by calling for a referendum on Mr. Modi's `sins', or by blaming Godhra too on the VHP, not only the riots that followed.

So much for the election results. As for the prospects for Hindutva, the thing to remember is that even the most resounding victory for Mr. Modi would not vindicate the hardliners. If Israel were to go to the polls today, after months of spiralling violence, Ariel Sharon would win by a huge margin; because of the vigour with which he has been `defending' the Jews. But the fact is that the violence began only after Mr. Sharon appeared on the scene. Before that Israel was at peace with itself.

Were the Israeli electorate asked to choose calmly between the `before' and `after' scenarios, they would unanimously choose the former. But ask them the same question after the damage has been done, and they will brush aside your niggling. Their senses inflamed, they will cheer their leader on even more lustily as he leads them to their doom.

What this means is that other States, when their turn comes, should not be asked, quixotically, to vote against Mr. Modi. They should be asked if they really want Gujarat to happen to them.

One last thing. A victory for the hardliners would cause a shift in the centre of gravity. Messrs Modi and the Deputy Prime Minister, L.K. Advani, will not be forced off-stage by people who are even more hardline. But the crush of events will force them into adopting ever more radical postures. This is one way life plays its practical jokes on us. Superficially we remain in control of our lives; but someone else writes the script.

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