The Hindu : Merger reduces AIADMK options

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Saturday, Aug 17, 2002

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

Merger reduces AIADMK options

By Suresh Nambath

CHENNAI Aug. 16. After the Congress-TMC merger, the AIADMK appears to have discounted the Congress from its list of potential allies for the next Lok Sabha election.

As it is keen on contesting a majority of the 39 seats at stake in the State, the AIADMK cannot hope to rope in the Congress, which will expect an equal share.

Having contested 23 seats in the last election, the AIADMK is only looking at raising the figure, and not bringing it down.

In any case, the AIADMK prefers the BJP to the Congress. The policy of keeping equidistance from the Congress and the BJP was devised as a way of keeping its options open, and increasing its bargaining strength.

However, even with the BJP, there could be difficulties apart from the problem of ejecting the DMK out of the National Democratic Alliance. As the BJP comes as a package with the MDMK and the PMK, the number of seats the AIADMK can keep for itself may not be sufficient.

The AIADMK will be willing to accommodate only the BJP and not the MDMK and the PMK. Although the pro-LTTE and extremist views of these parties might be cited as the reason for keeping out these smaller parties, the real worry of the AIADMK could be apportioning more seats.

The BJP, the PMK and the MDMK together would want 18 seats or more. If these parties bargain as a group, then they, like the united Congress, could go out of the AIADMK's scheme of things.

In the reasoning of the AIADMK, the stakes in a Lok Sabha election are far less than in an Assembly poll. In the 2001 Assembly polls, the AIADMK strategy was to bring together all anti-DMK forces in the form of a secular front.

Thus, the party accommodated not only the TMC and the Congress but also the PMK, the Left parties and the Indian National League. It was an `all or nothing' situation then.

In the next Lok Sabha election, the AIADMK will not be in a desperate situation. It can afford to take greater risks in the hope of obtaining a greater yield of seats.

Apparently, the first option of the AIADMK would be an alliance with the BJP alone. If this is not possible, the alternative would be to fight the election on its own.

The recent instances of AIADMK hostility to the MDMK and the PMK could also serve to isolate these parties from the BJP. If the AIADMK succeeds in getting rid of the DMK from the NDA, then pushing out the MDMK and the PMK will surely be an easier proposition. That Ms. Jayalalithaa would like the BJP to drop the smaller allies such as the MDMK which are known for their `extremist' views on the issues of LTTE and Tamil nationalism was clear in her letter to the Union Home Minister, L.K. Advani, calling for action against the MDMK leader, Vaiko, for his pro-LTTE views. Ms. Jayalalithaa described parties such as the MDMK as the ``so-called allies'' of the Centre. The implication was that the BJP would do well to drop them from its alliance.

In effect, the options before the AIADMK are to either ally with the BJP alone or fight the Lok Sabha elections on its own. And, with the possibility of an alliance with the BJP dependent on so many extraneous factors, the ``on-its-own'' alternative looks the most likely at this point.

There is also an obvious advantage in such a course. The party could keep its options open till after the general election, when the government-formation exercise begins.

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Merger reduces AIADMK options