The Hindu : U.S. peace plans for West Asia

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Tuesday, Aug 27, 2002

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U.S. peace plans for West Asia

By Qamar Agha

George W. Bush is likely to complicate the situation in the region rather than resolve the Israel-Palestine problem.

THE U.S. President, George W. Bush's recent peace plan has not generated much enthusiasm among the Palestinians, nor has it brought an end to the cycle of violence in the region. Palestinians generally believe that the U.S. initiatives are tilted in favour of Israel's Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon's hardline policies, that they are further complicating the situation because there are too many conditions no Palestinian leader can fulfil. The plan to establish a Palestinian state alongside Israel was reportedly aimed at garnering Arab support for the U.S. strategy to oust Saddam Hussein. However, it has not achieved much on either count.

The American plan calls for the removal of the Palestinian Authority President, Yasser Arafat, as part of a peace accord. Mr. Bush has also demanded reforms in the economic, financial and security structure of the Palestinian Authority, which is necessary to give the Palestinians hope and the Israelis confidence that the emerging Government will be headed by someone they can deal with. To sound balanced, Mr. Bush also calls on Israel to halt its Jewish settlement programme and pull back its troops from Palestinian towns. But, he believes it can happen only "as we make progress towards security" and makes no immediate demands on Israel. However, the U.S., in principle, maintains that Israel needs to withdraw from much of the West Bank and Gaza Strip which it occupied in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war.

In fact, his new peace plan is no different from that of his predecessor, Bill Clinton. Mr. Bush is basically attempting to push the same old proposals offered by Israel at Camp David in 2000 that Mr. Arafat had rejected. So, Mr. Bush is now telling the Palestinians to throw out Mr. Arafat and clear the Palestinian Authority of all those nationalist leaders opposed to Israeli proposals, even before the start of any political negotiations. Those who do not disagree with Tel Aviv should replace Mr. Arafat and his colleagues so that the new Palestinian Authority evolves its policies in harmony with Israeli wishes. Mr. Bush, in fact, has his own motives in pushing the new peace proposal. His top priority is not to establish a Palestinian state in the near future but to contain Islamic militancy and not to allow the conflict to spread to neighbouring states, and to provide security to Israel and normalise Arab-Israeli relations.

To achieve these goals, he is going ahead with his plan without bothering to see if the Palestinians are willing to buy it. The U.S. is, in fact, preparing a Palestinian Charter to restructure the PA. The new institutional framework will have the offices of President, Prime Minister, Council of Ministers and Parliament and these leaders will be instructed to build new political, economic and security institutions. The U.S. has promised its sustained involvement in the building of a "democratic state" and has promised to help write the Palestinian Constitution, build legal institutions, monitor elections, fund economic development, create a banking system and build a security force to root out terrorists. The CIA Director, George Tenet, has already begun working closely with Egyptian and Jordanian intelligence agencies to plan an overhaul of the security forces. Only when Washington is satisfied that the Palestinians have met the conditions will it allow them to create a provisional state that could negotiate final status issues with Israel. The Bush plan mainly tries to improve security for Israel in the guise of building peace and creating Palestinian institutions. Interestingly, Mr. Bush does not even offer to resolve core issues defining Israel's borders with the proposed Palestinian state or the status of Jerusalem, the return of refugees, the issue of Jewish settlements, water-sharing and other disputes. The U.S. has publicly abandoned its neutrality in the Arab-Israeli conflict and adopted Mr. Sharon's stance that Mr. Arafat is no longer relevant. Clearly, the offer is for the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip where Israel is not even prepared to dismantle Jewish settlements or compromise on Jerusalem. It is also not willing to allow the return of Palestinian refugees and Washington is not likely to back Palestinian demands.

The American proposal basically comes because of the growing realisation that Israel is unable to contain terrorism despite the frequent arms seizures, incursions and re-occupation of Palestinian towns. There is also a fear that it may give Mr. Sharon an excuse to resort to more extremist measures which include the transfer of the Palestinian population to Jordan that may seriously jeopardise the stability of the pro-U.S. Jordan's monarchy and may help Islamic militancy grow further in the region. American strategists feel the U.S. can ensure peace by deploying its troops in Palestinian territories to ensure Israel's security and stop further escalation of conflict.

Mr. Bush is serious in pushing his plan and is seeking the support of his allies in the Arab world. He is emphasising on confidence-building measures, which include a commitment to peace from Arab states. The Arab League has already adopted the Saudi peace proposal calling for recognition of Israel if it withdraws from all occupied Arab territories. Besides Egypt and Jordan, the Bush administration is engaging Saudi Arabia in resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict. In the new peace plan, the Saudi rulers are expected to play the role earlier assigned to Egypt by the Clinton administration. The Saudis have been chosen because of their importance in the Arab-Islamic world as the guardians of Islam's most holy shrines and their financial clout. The Kingdom maintains close ties with Washington. The U.S. would like Saudi funding for re-structuring the Palestinian Authority, which was earlier provided by the European Union. Washington's European allies have already distanced themselves from Mr. Bush's insistence that Mr. Arafat be replaced before serious peace negotiations with Israel begin. The E.U. has been demanding the establishment of a Palestinian state for a very long time and is far more critical of Israeli policies in Palestinian territories.

A more or less similar position has been adopted by most of America's Arab allies towards the Bush plan. But the problem is they are totally dependent on Washington either in terms of security, as in the case of Saudi Arabia, or financial assistance in the case of countries such as Egypt. As a result, they have lost significantly their bargaining capacity vis-a-vis the U.S. So, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan have expressed their willingness to help the U.S. The Saudi Foreign Minister has said there are a "number of positive elements" in the U.S. proposals, particularly its commitment to form a Palestinian state. He also said, "we wish that Palestinians had held elections much earlier". The track record of democracy in Egypt and Jordan — the other two countries selected by the U.S. to help restructure the PA — is no good either. Egypt has jailed pro-democracy activists and Jordan has postponed its parliamentary elections. As a matter of fact, the Palestinians don't need any outside support to build democratic institutions. Their society is built on foundations that are far more conducive to democracy than in other part of the Arab world.

But Mr. Bush seems determined to push his plan. So he is likely to complicate the situation in the region rather than resolve the Israel-Palestine problem. His moves are not likely to help solve much of the Palestinians' problems either. But, for sure, it will help stabilise Arab-Israeli relations even before the establishment of a Palestinian state. It would be a personal and political triumph for Mr. Sharon, who is steadfast in his agenda of establishing a Greater Israel.

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