The Hindu : Centre geared for renewed violence in J&K

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Sunday, Sep 15, 2002

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Centre geared for renewed violence in J&K

By Harish Khare

The People's Democratic Party candidate, Ghulam Hassan Mir, campaigning at Tangmarg constituency in North Kashmir on Saturday. Campaigning for the first phase of polls, to be held on Monday, ended on Saturday. — Photo: Nissar Ahmed

New Delhi Sept. 14. The Centre is expecting a dramatic increase in the violence in Jammu and Kashmir as the troubled State embarks on an electoral time-table on Monday. The view here is that Pakistan is desperate enough to want to ``activate'' all its ``assets'', including those in the ``separatist'' leadership, in the State to unleash violence in order to undermine the legitimacy of the electoral exercise.

For example, whereas the entire month of August recorded eight deaths in militants' attacks, the first 12 days this month saw 18 activists killed. Based on intercepts from across the border of instructions to militant groups to engineer the maximum possible violence, the Centre is mentally prepared for an unusual increase in militant activity.

On the other hand, the Union Home Ministry feels confident that the dominant sentiment in the Kashmir Valley is in favour of the elections, and that this time the elections would be far more representative, despite the Pakistani agents' efforts to disrupt the poll.

It is pointed out that compared to the entire month of August which witnessed 68 political meetings (of all political parties, including the National Conference, the BJP, the PDP, the Congress and others), the first 12 days of September saw as many as 121 meetings. Or, for example, Kupwara district had only 24 candidates in the 1996 Assembly elections, but this time 45 candidates are in the fray.

Pakistan's desperation emanates from the fact that there are a very large number of ``other'' candidates (28 in Kupwara district, 30 in Baramulla district, 34 in Srinagar district and 12 in Badgam district). Many of these ``independent'' candidates could turn out to be ``proxies''. For instance, a close associate of the Jamat-e-Islami leader, Syed Ali Shah Geelani, is believed to have floated a ``revolutionary movement'' forum and is contesting election as its candidate. According to one count, Kupwara district alone has as many as eight ``proxy'' candidates.

Though in private the Centre is not exactly pleased that the Chief Election Commissioner, J.M.Lyngdoh, has made ``anti-security forces'' statements, there is also the realisation that there may be unintended beneficial fallout from his blunt statement (that it is not the job of the security forces to bring voters to the polling booths). The new realisation has resulted in the decision to allow foreign diplomats access to the polling booths.

This despite the fact that the poll ``boycott'' calls are aplenty. Both Shabir Shah and the All-Party Hurriyat Conference, which held elaborate talks here recently with the Kashmir Committee, have issued ``poll boycott'' calls; the local Urdu media regularly reports these boycott calls as well as threats from this or that ``tanzeem'' to those who participate in any way in the election exercise.

Given the judgment that the Pakistani ``assets'' are out to create a bloody scenario, the earlier decision to confine the Army to the border areas has been revised. So far, the local police and other paramilitary forces were expected to handle the poll duties; but given the evidence of a massive militant onslaught, the Army has been asked to lend a helping hand in ensuring that those who want to participate in the elections feel sufficiently unintimidated to be able to travel to the polling booth. Campaign reports on

Pages 8 & 10

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