Tuesday, Sep 24, 2002
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By V.S. Sambandan
With the Sattahip elation now on the ebb, political parties and analysts here have started taking a hard look at the outcome of the first round held at Thailand's naval headquarters — Sattahip Naval Base — between September 16 and 18. What stands out from all the phrases used at Sattahip is the elaboration by the LTTE chief negotiator, Anton S. Balasingham, that the rebels will settle for "regional autonomy and self-governance.'' As a political analyst in Colombo pointed out, "this is the closest the Tigers have got to distancing themselves from separation.'' One direct consequence of this posturing is that the LTTE, which is in a militarily advantageous position, has now fired the first political salvo as well. By doing so, right at the start of a negotiating round, it has placed the political onus on the Government.
Broadest test
The broadest test will be the southern willingness for a move away from a unitary state. some groundwork has been done during the past few years, especially since the draft constitution by the Chandrika Kumaratunga administration, which prepared the national mind for a "union of regions,'' with greater devolution of powers. A broad understanding in the south that a solution will not be possible without devolution is a departure from the past. However, the Sri Lankan polity will now have to grapple with issues such as the extent of devolution and the power-sharing model. The ruling United National Party (UNP) faces the test of keeping the talks on track and steering it in a manner that incorporates the demand from the Opposition Peoples' Alliance (PA) to include core issues and political questions of democracy and pluralism. For the PA, which set the foundations for the present negotiations — be it through the draft constitution, which changed the approach to conflict resolution, or the initial moves for the current peace process by inviting the Norwegians — the challenge is to see that its concerns are included in the talks without being seen as a spoiler. While it broadly welcomes the progress made, the PA is beginning to think that it is now time for serious business and that the real issues will have to be taken on board. "The road may be arduous, it need not necessarily be long,'' Lakshman Kadirgamar, senior adviser to the President on Foreign Affairs told The Hindu.
Muslim concerns
The most difficult challenge is for the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC). Given the strong link between Muslim concerns and every issue in the negotiating process, the SLMC's leader, Rauff Hakeem, is in an unenviable position. The fragile relationship between the Muslims and the LTTE requires delicate handling. In addition, Mr. Hakeem is also bound to face pressure from Muslim politics to gain the maximum for the community.The public mind in Sri Lanka is being prepared for a long and difficult haul. With the talks off to a positive start, an assessment of the real progress will have to wait until the crucial issues of the conflict are addressed.
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