The Hindu : Sri Lankan stalemate continues

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Monday, Oct 21, 2002

International

International

Sri Lankan stalemate continues

By V.S. Sambandan

COLOMBO OCT. 20 . Sri Lanka is set to witness the unfolding of the politics of the bizarre in the coming weeks, with the two sharply-opposed political parties — the ruling United National Front (UNF) and the Opposition People's Alliance (PA) — sticking to their hardened positions.

When Parliament meets this week, the most important announcement would be the judicial pronouncement on the 19th amendment, aimed to curb the President's dissolution powers.

With all indications that the amendment would not stand the judicial test, several possible scenarios are projected in political circles. These include Parliament forcing the President to dissolve it, and the Opposition attempting to gather the numbers required for it to form the Government.

Both these possibilities are distant now, resulting in a continuation of the war of words that the two parties have been engrossed in. The UNF's intention of passing a parliamentary resolution seeking dissolution before the one-year deadline, according to legal opinion, will not be binding on the President, Chandrika Kumaratunga.

However, the UNF is likely to press ahead with this option, if not for anything else, just to make a point that it would like to seek a fresh popular mandate. The Opposition's attempts to form a government in the same House, is bound to be difficult given that the numbers are stacked against it.

Even if it were to gain the support of minority parties, it would not be able to stand the Parliamentary test, political observers said.

The two parties, therefore, could find themselves in a position where they are faced with no other option, but to cohabit. This would mean that there would be charges and counter-charges hurled against each other till the time comes when they decide to bury the hatchet or face general elections.

Under the present system, the President, who is directly elected, holds the ultimate decision on when to call for elections.

The only way in which this can be forced by Parliament is when a budget is defeated twice.

This would imply a bizarre possibility of the Government working to defeat its own budget if it wants the House to be dissolved.

The political compulsions are not too high for Ms. Kumaratunga to call for an election. Unlike the PA, the Ranil Wickremesinghe administration is keen on an early poll, especially to gain a larger mandate based on the ongoing peace euphoria.

The PA, however, is in no hurry and would rather wait for a more politically advantageous time to call for polls.

Given the odds against both parties, the only meaningful way out is cohabitation.

This is also not ruled out, but would require a considerable cooling of nerves on both sides of the political divide.

"One possibility is that they get back to constructive engagement and co-habitation'', Ketish Loganathan, of the Colombo-based think-tank, Centre for Policy Alternatives, told The Hindu.

On the implication of the southern political battle for the attempts at solving the island's decades-long separatist conflict through negotiations, Mr. Loganathan said, "the peace process can stand independently of this politics of the bizarre. It can and it must.''

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Sri Lankan stalemate continues