The Hindu : De-freezing Kashmir

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Wednesday, Oct 30, 2002

Opinion

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De-freezing Kashmir

By Harsh Sethi

Central to any peace process is the need to establish confidence on the ground... Steps are needed towards a reconciliation of the deeply divided regions, religious and ethnic groups.

MANY WHO saw the recent elections in Jammu and Kashmir as representing "a new window of opportunity" for cessation of violence and, hopefully, a sustained process towards durable peace, had felt let down by the continuing imbroglio over government formation. No matter how we interpret the verdict — as a mandate against the "misgovernance of the National Conference" and its record as a "spoiler" or as a rejection of Pakistani intrusion and armed militancy — even the non-participants admit to the electorate's courage and yearning for change. It is this groundswell that might fade away, possibly turn sullen and resentful, if our political class continues to remain an obdurate prisoner of its selfish compulsions.

But even had we witnessed a speedy Congress-PDP coalition, clearly the most desirable outcome, and not the unseemly wrangling over who would occupy what chair, the road ahead would remain thorny. For a start, despite the plethora of writing and analyses, there is little clarity or consensus over what exactly constitutes the Kashmir problem. The senior-most commentator on Kashmir, Balraj Puri, continually reminds us that it is a mistake to treat Kashmir as our own Muslim majority State. Such a formulation only foregrounds religious identity and disregards the immense ethnic and linguistic variety in the State, hiding the fact that the Kashmiri-speaking Muslim too is a minority. To treat Kashmir as the unresolved business of Partition, thus as a Muslim problem and go along with another division would be a tragedy.

Equally disingenuous is to treat this problem as one created by Pakistan, ostensibly under a (mis)apprehension that "Kashmir runs in its blood", a mirroring of the favourite Indian formulation locating Kashmir as an integral part of the Indian Union. Both these views foreground territory over people and lock parties into non-negotiable positions. Similarly, to treat Kashmir only as a failure of the central Indian leadership to provide a fair and honourable rule is to miss out on the inability of different strata and segments within the State to amicably resolve their internal differences over the kind of political dispensation they are willing to live under. It is not insignificant that the residents of Ladakh, a region constituting over two-thirds of the State, chafe under the rule of the Valley and seem keen on opting out of a collective future.

Often, there is an insufficient appreciation that the problem, howsoever defined, appears insurmountable both because many of the key players have a vested interest in the status quo, even a continuation of the conflict, but equally because an obsession with end results (the demand for final settlement) creates inertia and stops one from even embarking on the initial steps. Obversely, moves without a road map of the process can easily turn counter-productive. And this remains the greatest obstacle, that none of the parties to the conflict even on the Indian side — the Union Government, the major political parties in the state (NC, Congress, PDP, BJP), even the separatist forces — has announced a Kashmir policy.

The divisions within the Union Government are too well known to merit recounting. Given the strand which advocates a military solution, an abrogation of Article 370 and a complete integration of the State within the Union — all policies which have failed — this is hardly surprising. Equally distressing is the standoff between the ruling coalition and the principal Opposition party, indicating the absence of a national consensus.

Even at the state level, barring the NC whose primary raison d'etre was to somehow retain power, other combatants seemed trapped in a syndrome best described as "security of defeat". Having not expected to win, they had not thought about what they might do in the event of victory. No wonder, other than the routine rhetoric of manifestos, there is no plan in place.

Pakistan, of course, represents a bleaker picture. Not only is no elected Government in place, any new constellation will have to involve religious, hard-line parties, so far committed to continuing the jehadi struggle. Neither the Army nor the ISI can be expected to change track easily. And no one knows how strong or stable Pervez Musharraf is in this volatile situation.

Nevertheless, post-9/11 and now the elections, the situation does offer prospects for initiating a peace process. For a start, few among the international community are willing to extend support to the use of terrorist violence as state policy and pressure to rein in the militants has grown on the Musharraf regime. Within Kashmir, the main separatist force, the Hurriyat Conference, has eschewed the use of violence and called for a step-by-step negotiation process, even subduing its demand for bringing Pakistan on board in the first instance.

There is, however, a quandary. The Indian Government looks to the international community, in particular the U.S., to bring pressure on the Musharraf regime as part of the international war on terror i.e. treats terrorism as a multilateral issue, but reverts to the mantra of bilateralism the moment the discussion is on Kashmir. Given the experience of Palestine, Bosnia, Northern Ireland, and closer home, Sri Lanka, this may well be short-sighted and may contribute to giving out mixed signals.

Kashmir today represents a battered and brutalised society, one that will demand immense courage and patience before it can experience a sense of normality. There is a lot that civil society actors, not political entities, can do, and in fact are doing, to not just alleviate suffering but instil confidence in a populace that feels neglected. More than the exposes of human rights excesses by security forces, or even the many Track II and III initiatives that seek to engage the many political actors, the work with widows and orphans, restoring schools, involving children in creative work and so on demonstrates that Indian civil society has not forgotten Kashmir. If anything, compared to the Northeast, Kashmir has always excited greater attention and passion.

This is important for another reason too. Not surprisingly, political violence and its ramifications occupy a disproportionate share of our imagination, as if this suffering is the only problem. And even here, because media attention gravitates towards high-profile events and actors, troubles elsewhere are relegated to a permanent backburner.

Nevertheless, the continuing armed conflict too demands attention. And there is much that can be done by both the Union and State Government (once in place) without waiting for a breakthrough with Pakistan. Central to any peace process is the need to establish confidence on the ground. Why not think of reviving the failed ceasefire of 2000, this time without repeating many of the mistakes of the past? Or decommissioning irregular forces, both the mujahideen and the `renegades'? Of course, without demilitarisation and troop withdrawal, police reform and a re-institution of the rule of law, no lasting ceasefire is possible.

Steps are needed towards a reconciliation of the deeply divided regions, religious and ethnic groups. We seem to have forgotten the Kashmiri Pandits, stuck in camps and scattered all over. Are they only a semiotic pawn in the many political battles. Is this not time to take a fresh look at the many proposals/reports for internal autonomy and devolution of powers. There is no dearth of proposals for reconstruction, nor interest, both within the country and outside. If only our political leaders are willing to step outside their self-created cocoons, there is a world ready to be re-made.

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