The Hindu : Readying for the contest

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Sunday, Nov 03, 2002

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Readying for the contest

Given the urban rural divide, it is not clear whether the communal card alone will see the BJP through past the Congress, writes Manas Dasgupta.

A VERY close fight is likely between the two main contestants, the ruling BJP and the Congress, in the crucial elections to the Gujarat Assembly on December 12 though, in the aftermath of the riots, communal sentiment was ruling strong favouring the BJP.

However, given the urban-rural divide, it is not clear whether the communal card alone will take the ruling party past the magic figure of 92 in the 182-member House. It will be a prestige fight both for the caretaker Chief Minister, Narendra Modi, and the State Congress president, Shankarsinh Waghela. But comparatively, the outcome will be more crucial for Mr. Modi and his BJP. Not only does Mr. Modi's political future depend on it, victory will also be crucial for the party in the run-up to the 2004 Parliamentary elections and several State Assembly elections next year. After a series of demoralising defeats in various States, the BJP is clinging to its last bastion, the only State where it is in power on its own. A defeat in Gujarat, described as its "model State", will scatter the party's rank and file.

Both the Deputy Prime Minister, L. K. Advani, and the BJP national president, Venkaiah Naidu, during their recent visit to the State, underlined the importance of the Gujarat elections for the party asking the workers to shake off complacency and sink all differences. "Do not be overconfident" was their refrain.

Complacency and overconfidence could be the main problems for the BJP, especially given the turnout at Mr. Modi's "gaurav rath yatras". But the leadership, aware of the methods adopted to collect crowds, largely made of the party workers, and the funds squandered for the "success" of the shows, suspects that this turnout will have no bearing on the outcome of the polls.

Taking into account the series of defeats the BJP suffered in the district and taluka panchayat and municipal corporation elections and various byelections to the State Assembly and the Lok Sabha under Keshubhai Patel, the party is left with no option but to play "Hindutva" as its trump card. The BJP has nothing to show by way of performance during the three and half years of rule by Mr. Patel and the one year under Mr. Modi. Mr. Modi, who used the `gaurav rath yatra' as the party's main campaign vehicle, has played on communal sentiments, particularly in the urban areas, completely ignoring the performance factor. "Performance" and poll promises found no mention at his meetings where he harped mainly on Godhra, lambasted the Congress for "defaming the five crore people of Gujarat", attacked the "daughter of Italy" for "calling" them "Godse" and criticised the "pseudo-secularists" for "sharing thoughts with the country's enemy number one", the Pakistan president, Pervez Musharraf.

In the rural areas, Mr. Modi tried to claim credit for the supply of Narmada waters to some regions but met with little success. The rural folks are aware that the Narmada project was the cumulative effort of successive Governments, including that of the Congress, and that much was yet to be achieved. The Narmada pipeline project to supply drinking water to the Saurashtra region, originally mooted by the Congress, may also not fetch votes for the BJP.

The Congress under Mr.Waghela has started consolidating its Kshatriya vote bank and is trying to win back the Dalits and the Tribals. Its main thrust will be the shortsightedness of the BJP Government resulting in the problems of power and water shortage, inadequate drought relief measures and ineffective post-earthquake rehabilitation.

Power shortage is the biggest problem confronting the voters in the rural areas as well as certain continuous process industries, the powerloom sector and other industrial units in the urban areas.

The BJP Government's decision to re-install electricity metres at the behest of the Asian Development Bank, which were removed by the Congress Government led by Amarsinh Chaudhary, who had introduced horse-power based minimum unit charges for the farm sector, is being used to project the BJP as anti-farmer.

Contrary to the general belief, communal sentiments are still rife among the people in the urban areas — these are often manifested in clashes sparked by small issues such as road accidents. Even in the earthquake-ravaged district of Kutch, where the people are still living in tents and tin-sheds, the BJP has got a foothold after the communal riots. Coupled with the shortage of "credible candidates" in the Congress camp and its failure to exploit the general anti-Government feelings among the suffering masses, the BJP is hoping for a few seats in the district that once was considered to be a lost case for it.

The BJP is likely to generously accommodate the hardline Vishwa Hindu Parishad and Bajrang Dal candidates in its list, particularly in north and central Gujarat where the riots were widespread. Several prominent VHP and Dal leaders are joining the BJP on deputation to contest the elections to send a message across to the voters that it was the only party to "protect the Hindus".

The communal riots have not only resurrected the BJP from the total mess it found itself in less than a year back, but also put the Congress in a quandary. The minorities may be compelled to support the Congress to keep the BJP at bay, but made no secret of their disenchantment with the party. Taking the minority votes for granted, the Congress is avoiding active involvement of the Muslims in the campaigning lest it be totally identified with the minorities that can cost it the Hindu votes.

But the BJP is not without its problems within. The disgruntled former Chief Minister, Keshubhai Patel, is reportedly marshalling his "Patel" forces to deny Mr. Modi another stint. If not overtly, several other prominent leaders of the party opposed to Mr. Modi may also covertly add fuel to the fire. Besides, almost the entire bureaucracy, the IPS lobby and the Government employees, dissatisfied with Mr. Modi's style of functioning, as well as the business community, who had to suffer heavy losses due to continuous riots, have all turned against the BJP though essentially not in favour of the Congress which they view only as the other side of the same coin.

The success of the Congress will largely depend on how best it can channel the general antipathy of the rural voters against the ruling party.

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