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A lone hand by the Commonwealth

IN DECLINING TO revoke Pakistan's suspension from its membership, the Commonwealth has become the only significant international political force that continues to pressure the military regime to fulfil its promises in regard to democratisation. The decision taken by the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG) at its recent meeting not to revoke the suspension — which was triggered by the military coup of October 1999 — has struck a blow to the military regime's hopes that the general elections held last month would be universally acknowledged as a significant step towards the restoration of democracy. More so since a report by a Commonwealth observers group which monitored the elections provided the key inputs into the CMAG's decision. While these observers did note that the process of polling itself was free and fair, certain key decisions taken by the military regime ( in particular the "extra-constitutional" measures introduced by the Legal Framework Order 2002) prior to the polls were seen to have had a "limiting effect" on the process of restoring democracy. Measures that were taken after the poll — which appeared designed to promote the interests of a political formation that is widely seen as a favourite of the military regime — could not but have strengthened the CMAG's inclination to reply in the negative to the observer group's query whether a limited democratic dispensation was consistent with the Commonwealth's fundamental political values. However, the CMAG has indicated that the transfer of effective executive power from the military regime to an elected civilian Government could be a vital development that would induce it to reconsider the question of Pakistan's participation in the councils of the Commonwealth.

An adverse judgment by the Commonwealth might not count for very much in a context where this body is viewed as an anachronism, especially by those outside its fold. Nevertheless, the CMAG's decision does take on relevance when it is seen in relation to two other aspects of the global situation. For one, the Commonwealth's judgment in respect of the progress towards the democratisation of Pakistan, and of the efficacy of the general election in the promotion of the process, reflects the assessment of the European Union as well. Second, Islamabad's keenness to obtain the approval of the Commonwealth was evident from the manner in which it had highlighted the positive points in the observer's report when it was first released. Therefore, and irrespective of the gloss that it might now try to put on the affair, Pakistan's military regime will be greatly disappointed with the Commonwealth's decision. Chagrin at its failure to move the Commonwealth towards a more charitable assessment would not of itself push the military regime to loosen its control over the process of political change in Pakistan. So long as the U.S. administration sticks to its diametrically opposite view — that the general elections advanced the democratisation of Pakistan — the military regime would not feel hard-pressed to change its approach.

If the primary responsibility for the failure of democracy to take root in Pakistan is that of the military, an international community that has periodically failed to deter putschists cannot be absolved of blame either. But, in constantly blaming those other than themselves, the mainstream democratic forces in Pakistan cannot hope to conceal their own culpability. Parties that had sworn to oppose the military till a full democratic dispensation had been restored in Pakistan have been scrambling to be included in the Government to be formed though they well know that no elected Ministry will be free from the diktat of the military given the underlying constitutional changes that have been wrought. Neither the Commonwealth nor any other external force can help those who claim to stand for democracy in Pakistan unless they first show that they are capable of helping themselves.

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