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Pro-West accent may stay in Turkey

By Atul Aneja

ANKARA Nov. 5. The landslide victory for Turkey's pro-Islamic Justice and Development Party (AKP) in what is seen as a virtual electoral rebellion against the old guard on Sunday has fuelled anxieties that the country's secular credentials may be under threat.

Strategically located on the gates of Europe, Turkey, and especially its staunchly secular and powerful military, sees itself as a bulwark against the tide of extremism that may be descending from its Islamic neighbourhood to the east. Out of 550 seats, the AKP has won 363, polling 34 percent of the votes, resulting in an absolute majority in Parliament.

Since Turkey's electoral laws demand that only parties that secure 10 percent of the votes qualify to enter Parliament, only one other party, the Republican People's Party will find itself in the legislature. Reeling under an unending economic recession, and with unemployment hovering around two million, Turks in these elections have routed all the traditional parties that have ruled the country in the last decade. The ballot purge has shown the door to the political heavyweights — Bulent Ecevit, Tansu Ciller, Mesut Yilmaz and Devlet Bahceli.

Sunday's election also shows that Turkey has begun its transition to a new generation of leaders, as the AKP's head, Recep Erdogan, is only 48 years old. Despite apprehensions about the future course that the AKP might pursue, most analysts are of the view that the party would fall in line and will not, beyond a point, deviate from the country's already defined fundamentals — its continuation within the NATO, a look-West policy symbolised in its aspiration to enter the European Union and persistence with the economic reforms prescribed by the International Monetary Fund. In fact, in a statement that cheered the markets on Monday, Mr. Erdogan said his party would continue to follow the IMF guidelines to bail out Turkey's ailing economy. Ilnur Cevik, the chief editor of the English daily Turkish Daily News is convinced that the AKP, armed with an absolute majority, will look towards the West and may even try to hasten Turkey's entry into the E.U., as the anti-E.U. nationalist parties which were partners in the earlier coalition governments will no longer hamper it.

The AKP, notwithstanding its Islamic roots, is also expected to remain well within Turkey's defined secular parameters. Respect for Turkey's "strategic" choices is expected to enhance the AKP's chances of survival. Analysts cite two additional reasons to explain why an AKP Government is expected to last for a considerable length of time.

First, the AKP is likely to reach a clear understanding with the Turkish establishment represented by the military. Second, the military, on its part, may not be too keen to rock the AKP's boat. Observers are of the view that the AKP has received too heavy a mandate in Sunday's elections and the Generals are unlikely to act against the popular sentiment. Significantly, in a move that has fuelled wide speculation here, the military chief, Hilmi Ozkok, left for Washington on Monday where he is expected to meet top leaders.

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