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Outcome hinges on voter turnout

By Sridhar Krishnaswami

Washington nov. 5. The formal political campaign for the elections of 2002 has come to an end and voters have started heading out to the polling centres in what has been billed as one of those critical elections for Democrats, Republicans and the White House.

This is an off year election where voter turnout is going to be an extremely important factor with both major parties leaving no stone unturned to make sure that their faithfuls head to the polling stations on Tuesday across the country. By nighttime — depending on when polls close in States — Americans would have cast their ballots to decide the fate of the 435 members of the House of Representatives, 34 Senators and for 36 Governorships of the States. And not to be left out are a host of local initiatives ranging from legalising small amounts of marijuana for personal use in Nevada to splitting up parts of Los Angeles for jurisdictional purposes. "It's anybody's game,'' says the headline in The Washington Times, its lead story going on to make the point that many of the close and tight races in the Senate — say, in as many as 10 States — are simply too close to call. And then there are a host of last minute public opinion polls that show the Republicans or the Democrats pulling ahead in Congressional districts. For example, the latest Gallup/CNN/USA Today poll shows that a last minute dramatic shift has taken place among likely voters with 51 per cent to 45 per cent surveyed favouring the local Republican candidate. Ten days ago, the same poll showed the Democrats favoured by a 49 per cent to 46 per cent margin. But a Pew Research Centre poll has shown that the Democrats are favoured by a 46 per cent to 44 per cent margin.

The Republicans and Democrats left nothing to chance in the final hours of the campaigning. The former President, Bill Clinton, stumped for candidates that wanted him to do so; but there were those who clearly did not want the popular ex-President by their side, even if the races were dead even.

One such was the Georgia Senator, Max Clelland. Mr. Clinton's former Chief of staff, Erskine Bowles, did not ask him to be on his campaign trail in North Carolina. Mr. Bowles is locked in a tough fight with Elizabeth Dole, Republican candidate hoping to keep the seat vacated by Senator Jesse Helms. But the President, George W Bush, criss-crossed at least 15 States in the last three days in a campaign blitz that has left many wondering if he has indeed raised the political stakes for himself over the next two years.

Mr. Bush would not simply give up and went to the assistance of even some of the most difficult races such as in Arkansas and Colorado. And the Bush White House has made a huge effort in getting Minnesota, Missouri and South Dakota. For all the talk about this election being important for every one of the races, the fact remains that a lot of attention has been paid to the Senate with the White House hoping to buck the historical trend and walking away with Capitol Hill when the `game' is over.

Mr. Bush's focus on the Senate is not without its reasons for he feels that the Democratic controlled chamber has not really given him enough latitude, especially in the appointments category vis-a-vis the judiciary. The impression is that the Grand Old Party will come back with a vengeance if it wins the Senate, but the Republicans have been gently reminded that it was the arrogance of power in the aftermath of the 1994 elections that gave the Democrats and Mr. Clinton back the White House in 1996.

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