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The global warming debate

By M.R. Srinivasan

The recently concluded Conference of Parties at New Delhi on global warming ended with the Delhi Declaration after deliberations which showed little common ground between various State parties on many contentious issues.

At the Earth Summit at Rio de Janiero in 1992, the developing countries insisted that industrialised countries which are largely responsible for the deterioration of the global environment, must bear the principal responsibility of amelioration. The developing countries demanded that the developed countries provide new and additional financial assistance and access to clean technologies.

Further, the developing countries did not want environmental issues to unduly detract them from the primary task of development and eradication of poverty. In the ten years after Rio, the richer countries have responded inadequately to the concept of "common but differentiated responsibility".

The Kyoto Protocol negotiated in 1997 required a reduction of 5.2% in green house gas levels relative to 1990 levels during 2008-2012, for the developed countries. The reduction commitment was broken down to U.S. 7%, EU 8%, Japan 6% and so on. The Kyoto Protocol foresaw greenhouse gas mitigation through clean development mechanisms, Joint Implementation of Projects and Emission Trading.

Many experts in the field of climate change felt that the Kyoto Protocol goals were indeed inadequate. Strangely the Bush administration decided in 2001 that it would not submit the Kyoto Protocol for ratification by the U.S. Senate. During negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol, the U.S. repeatedly argued that India and China, both large population centres, should also undertake greenhouse gas reduction commitments. The fact that the per capita emissions in both these countries were very small was glossed over in making this demand. This question reappeared at the Delhi Conference of Parties. The developed countries kept up pressure to include in the declaration to be issued at the end of the conference, some words that legally committed the developing countries to take measures to cut down greenhouse gas emissions. The developed countries predictably endeavoured to split the unity of the developing countries. The Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, took it on himself to warn the conference that there was no question of India and other developing countries committing to reduce emissions.

The Delhi Declaration incorporates the united rejection by the developing countries of any legal commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The declaration emphasises that the U.S., Russia and other developed countries which have not so far ratified the Kyoto Protocol to do so at the earliest.

The U.S. continues to argue that accepting the Kyoto Protocol obligations would harm its economy and in consequence that of the world as a whole. Both at Delhi and at the World Summit on Sustainable Development at Johannesburg held a few months ago, the need to promote renewable energy was a point of consensus. Desirable as this is, we must recognise that the economics have to improve a great deal before renewables can penetrate the market in a big way.

Both solar and wind energy are diffuse and are available only for a few hours in a day. As of now, the only forms of electricity production in a large scale that do not produce carbon dioxide are hydro electric and nuclear power.

Recognising this fact, Mr. Vajpayee recently urged the nuclear advanced countries to cooperate with India to speed up India's nuclear power programme, which hitherto has been a home-grown endeavour.

The Inter-Governmental Panel on climate change, in its recent report, has estimated that the earth will warm between 1.4 degrees Celsius and 5.8 degrees Celsius (the band is due to uncertainties in prediction) between 1990 and 2100 with most land areas warming more than the global average.

Extreme weather events such as heat waves, heavy precipitation events, floods, draughts, fires, pest outbreaks and severe cyclonic storms are projected to increase. The sea level is projected to increase from 8 to 88 centimetres between 1990 and 2100.

While some positive effects of climate change are predicted, most impacts would be adverse. They include decrease in water availability in water scarce regions, decrease in agricultural productivity, increase in the number of people exposed to vector-borne diseases and widespread risk of flooding due to heavy precipitation and sea level rise.

Even without the effects of global warming, India is regularly visited by floods and draughts with serious damage to agricultural activities and the well-being of our rural population. India must therefore do whatever it can to push the global community to take mitigation programmes on a priority basis.

India has been emphasising the need to adopt "responsible frugalism" among the rich nations of the world so that they cut down their consumption patterns to more sustainable levels.

The interlocutors of the rich societies do not like to be reminded that there is considerable scope for reducing consumption of food, clothing, petrol, paper and other such articles without any reduction in their standard of living or comfort levels.

A precondition for sustainability over the long run in India is to curb our burgeoning population through incentives and disincentives. To mitigate the impact of greenhouse gases, we must place greater reliance on hydropower, nuclear power and renewables and over time cut down on carbon-based energy sources. A levy on carbon fuels to promote the non-carbon alternatives is justified.

We must practise energy conservation comprehensively and switch over to electricity-based traction for railways and urban transportation. In the longer run, hydrogen, produced in novel ways using solar energy and biotechnology may offer a carbon-free method of power production for personal vehicles and small-scale power generation that could supply the needs of a home. It is time we deployed our bright young technologists in realising these possibilities.

(The writer is a former Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission.)

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