The Hindu : Iraq: threat of war not over

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Saturday, Nov 16, 2002

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International

Iraq: threat of war not over

By Sridhar Krishnaswami

United Nations Nov. 15. While there is general relief that Iraq has accepted the terms of the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1441, diplomats here are not fully convinced that the threat of war is over. For that matter there is no consensus at the world body that things are going to be smooth from now on until the third week of February when the Chief Weapons Inspector, Hans Blix will have to report back to the Council.

In fact some believe that the first challenge of sorts could come by December 8 or earlier when Iraq will have give a roster of its weapons programmes as mandated by Resolution 1441.The regime of Saddam Hussein, some argue, has put itself in a corner by insisting all along — even as late as November 13 in its acceptance letter — that it has no weapons of mass destruction. If Iraq has no weapons(or programmes) of mass destruction, then where is the question of giving a `list' by December 8? Iraq, one view goes, will try to get out of the tight spot it finds itself by giving the weapons inspectors its version of what had taken place four years ago when the last of the inspectors left Baghdad.

The status report of 1998 would be tempered by the argument that there had actually been no movement in the programmes over the years. Whether Mr. Blix and his team go along with this is one side to the story; and whether the Bush administration will tend to play along is a totally different ball game. The other perception is that in trying to give the impression of being cooperative, Mr. Hussein might actually give the weapons inspections team a roster of chemical and biological materials.

The regime then will make the argument that these materials are actually intended for either pharmaceutical or civilian scientific purposes. Another area where diplomats are watching with a great deal of apprehension is at what point the weapons inspections team will draw the line and fault Baghdad for not going along with the obligations of Resolution 1441. It will be a very serious thing if Mr. Blix reports back to the Security Council of Iraqi non-compliance, for Washington has made it known that with or without the backing of the world body, it is ready to pursue all options — read going to war.

In demanding a tough and stringent inspections regime from the Security Council, Mr. Blix has also said two things in the last few weeks: first, he did not wish to have the Council breathe down on inspections team every step of the way; and secondly, he will not be running to the Security Council with every minor problem he encounters in Iraq. Mr. Blix has made it known that for him to approach the world body prior to his final report in February 2003 it would have to be for a serious or grave infraction.

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